2025 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Who’s Derby-Ready?

The $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) headlines a loaded Tuesday card at Keeneland, and with Derby dreams on the line, every move counts. The race features a field of 7 battle-tested 3-year-olds competing at 1 1/8 miles on dirt — and while the lineup may be small, the pace scenario and class spread give this one plenty of betting intrigue.

At Betting Advantage, we’ve analyzed every figure, trip note, and pace projection to isolate not only the top contenders — but which exacta structures offer the most value.

Let’s break down the field and show you why this isn’t a race you can handicap casually.

🧠 Betting Advantage Contender Breakdown – 2025 Blue Grass Stakes

🥇 #1 River Thames (5-2)

This Pletcher colt is as battle-tested as they come, with three career starts and two strong wins at Gulfstream, including a 95 Beyer when just nailed in the G2 Fountain of Youth. He owns tactical speed (TimeformUS Early Pace: 119) and figures to sit a golden rail trip with Irad up. His improving figures, versatility, and grinder’s mentality give him a serious win profile, especially if the pace doesn’t melt down. The inside post could be either a gift or a trap — trip matters.

💣 #2 Render Judgment (20-1)

The longshot with more fight than flash, this McPeek trainee ran a solid second in the rich Virginia Derby Bonus Series but was a non-factor in the Risen Star. He grinds but doesn’t quicken, and his 83 Beyer top leaves him well behind on figures. Still, his Late Pace rating of 95 suggests he could pick up pieces if a total collapse occurs. Underrated for bottom exotics, but tough to envision as a true win threat.

🔄 #3 Burnham Square (9-2)

An improving gelding with upside, Burnham Square won the G3 Holy Bull with a strong stretch move and came back to finish evenly in the Fountain of Youth after a tough wide trip. His 106 Late Pace rating is second-best in the field, and his running style fits if the pace collapses. While he lacks flashy speed figures, the foundation is solid — and horses in this barn (Wilkes) often peak in these spring preps. Very playable in the exotics.

⚡ #4 Owen Almighty (3-1)

The likely pacesetter, Owen Almighty was all heart in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, wiring the field with a 93 Beyer and a massive 120 Early Pace rating. He’s never been passed when he gets the lead uncontested. However, this is a tougher group and several others have tactical speed. If he’s forced to duel, his late figure (75) could make him vulnerable in the final eighth. Still, if left alone, he’s dangerous — and proven in fast-paced scenarios.

🎭 #5 East Avenue (3-1)

Godolphin’s colt has a Grade 1 win at Keeneland under his belt, having blitzed the Breeders’ Futurity last fall with a 95 Beyer — but he’s been a head-scratcher since. He folded badly in the Risen Star despite a perfect stalking trip and now adds blinkers. If the equipment change sharpens him, he could recapture that elite 2-year-old form, but the pace profile (125 Early / 73 Late) suggests a one-way speed horse who may burn out if tested early. Look for a big rebound effort.

📈 #6 Chancer McPatrick (7-2)

Chad Brown’s G1-winning juvenile returned with a solid runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, tracking the pace and finishing willingly. His 87 Beyer last out doesn’t tell the full story — this horse has back-to-back Grade 1 wins at two and owns a strong Late Pace rating of 100. Brown second off the layoff is lethal, and this one could be peaking at the right time. A major player if the top two melt, or if he works out a trip just behind the leaders.

🧨 #7 Admiral Dennis (20-1)

This is your chaos button. He’s been buried in fields like the G2 Rebel but ran well enough in an allowance win two back. His figures are light (top Beyer: 83), but he’s trained by Cox, who’s hitting at 27% and spots his horses smartly. He gets a positive rider switch to Saez and might offer hidden value in a total pace meltdown. Impossible to trust — but equally tough to fully toss from deep exotics if things fall apart up front.

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