Aqueduct and Churchill Picks for Thursday

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🏇🏇Aqueduct and Churchill Thursday

We hit 6 Exactas and 5 Trifectas yesterday at Churchill from 9 races. We have twice as many races today and look for twice the winners!

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🏇🏇Free Picks for Thursday

Churchill Downs Race #7

#2 Fearless Lady (5-1)

• Jockey: Gaffalione (17% 2024)

• Trainer: Moquett (13% 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 83, Late 76

• Last Beyer: 57

• Running Style: Stalker

Made huge improvement stretching out last time when third after stalking pace at Keeneland, earning solid 57 Beyer. Gets top rider Gaffalione back aboard who's been red hot at meet with 17% strike rate. By Nyquist out of a Tapit mare suggesting distance will be right in wheelhouse. Moquett excels with stretching out maidens hitting at 14% with similar moves. Recent string of works solid including sharp 49.4 at Churchill. Well-positioned from middle post to track predicted honest pace. Should move forward third time out while adding Lasix.

#1 Tiger Division (5-2)

• Jockey: Saez (16% 2024)

• Trainer: Arnold (15% 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 103, Late 51

• Last Beyer: 60

• Running Style: Speed

Tiger Division has been improving steadily, showing competitive performances in maiden special weight company. Her tactical speed allows her to sit just off the leaders, and her recent Beyer figures are among the best in the field. Saez’s record at Churchill enhances confidence. She’s been training sharply and is poised to break through.

#4 Ez Tree Ates (3-1)

• Jockey: R. Santana Jr. (14%)

• Trainer: N. Casse (15%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 75, Late 62

• Beyer Speed Figure: Last 56

• Field Beyer Average: 56

• Running Style: Presser/Stalker

Comment:

Ez Tree Ates has shown potential in two starts, finishing strongly despite being off the pace early. Her pedigree indicates potential for improvement as the distances increase, and she’s been working well, making her a logical contender.

#7 Carolina Smokeshow (4-1)

• Jockey: Geroux (19% 2024)

• Trainer: Beckman (13% 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 78, Late 85

• Last Beyer: 58

• Running Style: Closer

Late-running threat who made good impression closing for second in route debut. By Audible from a Quality Road mare suggesting stamina won't be an issue. Beckman excelling with juveniles at 14% clip. Gets top rider Geroux who fits closing style perfectly. Latest work 47.2 at Churchill shows continued progress. Will benefit from what projects as honest tempo up front. One of several in here who should relish added ground.

Aqueduct Free Picks for Thursday

6th race

#6 Vegas Weekend (3-1)

• Jockey: R. Silvera (9% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Antonio Arriaga (33% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited stats

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 90, Late 81

• Last Beyer: 73

• Field Beyer Average: 68

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Vegas Weekend is in strong form, coming off a win at this distance where she controlled the pace and held off challengers late. Her Beyer figure of 73 is among the best in this field, and her versatile running style allows her to adapt to various pace scenarios. With a solid trainer win rate and proven performance at Aqueduct, she’s a prime contender.

#2 It Takes Heart (5-2)

• Jockey: M. Franco (16% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Robert N. Falcone Jr. (17% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 27% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 106, Late 49

• Last Beyer: 65

• Field Beyer Average: 68

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: It Takes Heart has shown the ability to set a strong pace and hold on in competitive claiming events. She drops in class today, which should make her highly competitive against this field. The Franco-Falcone Jr. partnership is effective, and she has been training well leading up to this race. A key pace factor in this field.

#4 My First Love (4-1)

• Jockey: J. Lezcano (7% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Rob Atras (22% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited stats

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 80, Late 67

• Last Beyer: 66

• Field Beyer Average: 68

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: My First Love comes off a sharp win at 7 furlongs where she displayed a strong stretch run to secure victory. She cuts back in distance today, which should suit her closing style well. With consistent performances at Aqueduct and a competitive Beyer figure, she’s a strong candidate for exotics.

#1 Gringotts (8-1)

• Jockey: R. Maragh (0% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Samsundar Roshan (5% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited stats

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 73, Late 60

• Last Beyer: 69

• Field Beyer Average: 68

• Running Style: Mid-pack

Comment: Gringotts is an experienced runner with multiple solid efforts in claiming company. While she hasn’t been able to find the winner’s circle recently, her Beyer figures and pace metrics indicate she can be competitive. A veteran presence in the field, she offers value at her morning-line odds.