Belmont Park Free Pick for Friday

Race 7 Post: 3:48 PM ET Dirt

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $20,000 | Purse: $35,000 Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 7 & 8, Pick 3 ($1) (7-9)

How the Race Shapes Up:

The pace in this race is expected to be honest, with Salacious and Hours in a Day likely to vie for early control. If the pace gets too hot, it could set up well for closers like Taparino and Fire Baron. However, Hours in a Day looks like the class of the field and should be able to stay close enough to the pace to make a decisive move late. Salacious may have a chance to hold on for a piece of the trifecta if he isn’t softened up too much early. Overall, this looks like a race where pace dynamics will be key, and the outcome could depend on how the front-runners handle pressure.

Analysis:

In Race 9 at Belmont, a competitive field of maidens goes to post for this 1-mile event on dirt. The likely pace of the race will be set by several front-runners, but there are some closers in the field who could take advantage of a hot pace scenario.

#6 Hours in a Day (7-5):

The favorite coming into this race, Hours in a Day, has been a consistent performer at this level. He is coming off a second-place finish over a sloppy track, where he showed an ability to close strongly in the stretch. His early pace figures suggest he can settle mid-pack and make a late run. Rudy Rodriguez's barn has been in decent form, and this runner should be tough to beat if he replicates his recent efforts. Expect him to sit just off the leaders and pounce in the stretch.

#1 Salacious (2-1):

Salacious will be the primary pace threat in this race. He has shown the ability to control the pace in recent starts, often going to the front early and trying to take them all the way. His early pace figures are among the best in the field, and Kendrick Carmouche will likely send him from the rail to secure a prominent position. If he can slow things down up front, Salacious has a chance to wire the field, though he may face pressure from other speed horses.

#2 Taparino (6-1):

Taparino presents an interesting option at a bit of a price. He has been racing consistently, though he hasn't found the winner's circle yet. His best races have come when he stays just off the pace, and his solid closing figures suggest he can pick up the pieces if the pace collapses. Luzzi will need to give him a well-timed ride, and if things break his way, Taparino could surprise.

#4 Comanche Peak (8-1):

Comanche Peak has shown potential, especially on turf. Though he hasn’t broken through yet, his pace figures suggest he has the ability to stay in contention. He’s stepping up on dirt here, and if he takes to the surface, he could surprise at decent odds. Trainer Juan Bernardini has had success at this level.

How the Race Shapes Up:

Look for Salacious to set the early pace, with Hours in a Day tracking just behind. If Salacious gets an easy lead, he may hold on for a piece, but if pressed, Hours in a Day will likely take over in the stretch. Watch for Taparino and Comanche Peak to come late if the pace is fast. The race sets up well for Hours in a Day, but closers could make it interesting in the final furlong.

Keeneland Free Pick for Friday

Race 8 Post: 4:44 PM ET Dirt

Myrtlewood S. 6 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | G STAKES | Purse: $200,000 Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)

Analysis:

The Myrtlewood Stakes brings together a talented group of 2-year-old fillies. With several showing early speed, the race could unfold with a contested pace, setting it up for horses who can either press the pace or finish strong.

#10 Trust Fund Philly (3-1):

Trust Fund Philly impressed in her debut, winning a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in the slop. Her Beyer Speed Figure of 78 is among the highest in this field, and her tactical speed will allow her to sit just off the early pace. With Jose Ortiz aboard, she’ll have every chance to strike turning for home. Expect a forward trip, and if she handles this surface as well as she did the slop, she’ll be a serious contender to win.

#3 Echo Sound (5-1):

Echo Sound is undefeated in two starts, with her latest win coming in an allowance at Churchill Downs. She posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 73 in that effort and has shown she can press the pace or take the lead. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, this filly is likely to be right in the mix early, and her tactical ability will make her dangerous. If she can hold her position in the stretch, she could prove tough to pass.

#12 Long Neck Paula (10-1):

Long Neck Paula has shown great form in her three career starts, with two wins and a third. Her victory in the Prairie Meadows Debutante showed she has the stamina to finish well in 6-furlong races. She’ll likely sit mid-pack, and if the pace up front is too fast, Long Neck Paula could be the one closing late. Her odds provide excellent value, and she’s a must-use in exotics.

#4 White Sands (4-1):

White Sands comes from the Wesley Ward barn and has shown early speed in her races. In her last start, she finished a solid third in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Her early speed and ability to hold on down the stretch make her a threat. She’ll likely try to take the lead early, and if she gets an uncontested pace, she could wire the field.

How the Race Shapes Up:

The pace should be contested with White Sands and Echo Sound likely to go for the lead. Trust Fund Philly will sit just behind the speed, poised to make a move as they approach the turn. If the pace is too hot, Long Neck Paula could be flying late to pick off the leaders. However, Trust Fund Philly looks like the class of the field and should be tough to beat if she gets a clean trip.