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Churchill Downs/Aqueduct Friday
Solid cards at both tracks today- Let's Get Some Winners!
🐎🎯Handicapping with Tom:
Second-Time Starters:
Horses making their second career start often improve significantly, especially if their debut was at a sprint distance. Look for second-timers with solid works since their debut and connections known for winning with young horses.
🏇Today’s Racing:
Stakes performers populate Churchill allowances
Churchill Downs ushers in the weekend with an appealing and competitive Friday card featuring three allowance-level events.Fluid Situation looks to remain perfect over the course
After making a successful return off a layoff over his favorite course here last month, Fluid Situation will try to remain unbeaten over Aqueduct's turf in Friday's featured second-level allowance/optional-claiming sprint scheduled for six furlongs
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Tyson vs Paul Tonight!
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Free Picks for Today:
Churchill Downs 8th race:
#1 Outadore (7-2) A proven turf sprinter, Outadore has shown an affinity for Churchill's turf course with two wins from two starts here. His tactical speed and high early pace figure give him an edge to control the race from the front. With recent form holding steady at competitive Beyer levels, he’s well-positioned to take command early. Though slightly vulnerable late, his past class and form make him a solid choice in this field.
#2 Mischievous Rogue (5-2) Mischievous Rogue brings closing power to the table, with a strong late kick that suits a fast-paced turf sprint. Although he missed in his last race, he rallied well against similar company. Trainer Maker’s turf sprint stats are solid, and with Saez on board, this horse has a good shot to capitalize if the leaders tire.
#7 Urban Legend (4-1) Urban Legend has the right combination of early speed and the ability to rate just off the lead, making him a flexible contender in this turf sprint. His recent win at Keeneland suggests he’s in top form, and Ortiz’s presence is a positive sign. The colt’s consistency and tactical pace make him a contender for the win if he can secure a good position early.
#10 Bad Beat Brian (10-1) As a seasoned runner with proven class in turf sprints, Bad Beat Brian is a valuable longshot. He possesses enough tactical speed to stay close early and has held his own in graded stakes. Given his experience and ability to sustain pace over five furlongs, he could make an impact if the favorites falter upfront.
🏇🏇 Aqueduct 7th race
#3 Backside Buzz (4-1) Recently claimed by Noda, Backside Buzz was impressive in his last start, controlling the pace and finishing strongly. This 4-year-old has flashed solid front-running ability and should benefit from a fast early pace. Ortiz’s addition is a positive signal, as his aggressive style aligns with this gelding’s strengths. If he clears early, he’s tough to pass late.
#7 Natural Harbor (7-2) missed by just 2 ¾ last out against similar. Franco and Cox maintain a high win rate together, and this colt’s tactical speed allows him to settle behind the leaders and make a well-timed move. Perfectly positioned for another peak performance if the pace is favorable.
#6 Squire Creek (4-1) $525,000 purchase showing strong ROI for Atras barn since claim. Prior graded stakes quality suggests tons of back class. Recent work tab extremely sharp including 4f drill in :48§. Tactical speed allows Santana to secure forward position from middle post. Prior wins over track demonstrate surface preference. Atras barn red-hot with 23% win rate and excels with these types.
#8 Secret Rules (5-1) A versatile 7-year-old who’s been highly consistent at Aqueduct, Secret Rules arrives off a narrow defeat after a troubled break. He fits well in this level and has the proven closing kick to make an impact, especially if he sits behind a fast early pace. Rosario’s experience with late runners aligns well here, making him an appealing play for exotics.