Friday, November 22, 2024

Churchill Downs

Battaglia’s Picks recommends playing Exacta Boxes:

• Surefire Selections (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐): Prime picks with the highest confidence level. Place your bets with utmost assurance.

• Stellar Selections (⭐⭐⭐⭐): Strong contenders with solid prospects. A very favorable betting choice.

• Notable Nominations (⭐⭐⭐): Worthy of attention, these picks hold intriguing potential.

• Moderate Mentions (⭐⭐): Proceed with caution. These horses present some possibilities, but also notable risks.

• Consider Skipping (⭐): Best to observe. The risks likely outweigh the potential rewards in these races.

Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET Dirt

1 Mile | Open | 2 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $68,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (Races 1-5) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 6-1 Lou Man G. Corrales 118 Lbs L. Rivelli $40,000

• 2 2 ML 5-1 Secret Trouble W. Rodriguez 118 Lbs N. Rivera $40,000

• 3 3 ML 5-1 Vamos Carlitos F. Geroux 120 Lbs J. Thomas $40,000

• 4 4 ML 15-1 Streets of War A. Nunez 118 Lbs N. Rivera $40,000

• 5 5 ML 3-1 Righteous Star L. Machado 118 Lbs J. Cano $40,000

• 6 6 ML 20-1 Sheppinator S. Bermudez 120 Lbs A. West $40,000

• 7 7 ML 8-5 Gardiner T. Gaffalione 118 Lbs J. Sharp $40,000

• 8 8 ML 15-1 Caped Crusader J. Torres 118 Lbs M. Tomlinson $40,000

Selections 7-2-5-3 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#7 Gardiner (8-5)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Joe Sharp (16% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 23% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 101, Late 49

• Last Beyer: 71

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Gardiner has been consistently competitive in allowance company and now drops into the claiming ranks. His Beyer figures are the best in the field, and his pressing style positions him well in a race with limited pace pressure. Gaffalione’s strong record at Churchill Downs further solidifies his credentials, and he’s a likely winner against this field.

#2 Secret Trouble (5-1)

• Jockey: W. Rodriguez (16% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Nestor Rivera (18% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 70, Late 56

• Last Beyer: 55

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Secret Trouble has shown consistent improvement, winning his last two starts and earning a solid Beyer figure. While his pace figures are slightly below the top choices, his stalking style allows him to stay close and make a late move. A solid value play for exotics.

#5 Righteous Star (3-1)

• Jockey: L. Machado (19% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Juan M. Cano (14% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 79, Late 80

• Last Beyer: 63

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Mid-Pack

Comment: Righteous Star is a lightly raced colt who broke his maiden impressively three starts back. While he has yet to prove himself against winners, his Beyer figures are competitive, and his ability to sustain pace through the stretch makes him a contender.

#3 Vamos Carlitos (5-1)

• Jockey: F. Geroux (19% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (20% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 65, Late 78

• Last Beyer: 73

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Vamos Carlitos moves back to dirt and gets blinkers on, which could sharpen his focus. His debut win showed his ability to close strongly. Though his pace figures suggest he’ll need a fast early pace to be effective, he’s a strong candidate for exotic wagers if the race sets up correctly.

Winner #3 Vamos Carlitos $14.84
Second #7 Gardner $1 Exacta $17.49

Race 2

Post: 1:29 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING: $62,500 | Purse: $78,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 3-1 Higher Standard E. Esquivel 120 Lbs W. Cowans $62,500 L

• 2 2 ML 15-1 Goodasiwonswas G. Saez 120 Lbs M. Shirer $62,500 L

• 3 3 ML 5-1 Major Blue L. Saez 120 Lbs D. Lukas $62,500 L

• 4 4 ML 6-1 Robo Man E. Morales 120 Lbs D. Holden $62,500 L

• 5 5 ML 4-1 Miacomet C. Torres 120 Lbs M. Shirer $62,500 L

• 6 6 ML 5-2 Big Hat Willie S. Camacho, Jr. 120 Lbs D. Jacobson $62,500 L

• 7 7 ML 5-1 Eli's Promise R. Vazquez 120 Lbs J. DiVito $62,500 L

Selections 1-6-3 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#1 Higher Standard (3-1)

• Jockey: E. Esquivel (11% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: William D. Cowans (26% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 33% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 92, Late 75

• Last Beyer: 92

• Field Beyer Average: 85

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: Higher Standard drops in class after facing tougher allowance company. He has consistently posted strong Beyer figures, with a 92 in his last claiming effort. His early speed makes him a prime candidate to control the pace in a race with limited front-end pressure. Trainer Cowans has a strong win rate with similar drops, and this colt has a proven record at Churchill Downs.

#6 Big Hat Willie (5-2)

• Jockey: S. Camacho Jr. (27% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: David Jacobson (16% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 27% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 96, Late 94

• Last Beyer: 88

• Field Beyer Average: 85

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Big Hat Willie is in excellent form, with three wins and a second from his last seven starts, including a sharp victory last time out. His balanced pace figures suggest he can adapt to various scenarios, and he has excelled at this distance. The Jacobson barn has been firing, and Camacho’s aggressive riding style complements this horse’s running style.

#3 Major Blue (5-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (16% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (9% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 95, Late 70

• Last Beyer: 91

• Field Beyer Average: 85

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Major Blue comes off a strong second-place finish in allowance company, showing improvement with a 91 Beyer. While he has struggled to win at Churchill Downs, his tactical speed and recent form make him a contender in this softer spot. Saez’s ability to position him effectively will be key.

Race 3

Post: 1:58 PM ET Dirt

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 15-1 Partyvicious L. Machado 122 Lbs A. West L

• 2 2 ML 10-1 Map to the Stars B. Hernandez, Jr. 122 Lbs P. McGee L

• 3 3 ML 8-5 Top Gun Rocket J. Torres 122 Lbs R. Mott L

• 4 4 ML 8-1 Burlsworth R. Bejarano 122 Lbs R. Moquett L

• 5 5 ML 15-1 Shallus J. Felix 122 Lbs R. Labra L

• 6 6 ML 8-1 Viking M. Garcia 122 Lbs R. Morse L

• 7 7 ML 2-1 Evan On Earth L. Saez 122 Lbs G. Foley L

• 8 8 ML 6-1 World Chaos T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs D. Beckman

Selections 7-3-8-6 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#7 Evan On Earth (2-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (16% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Gregory D. Foley (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 27% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 112, Late 53

• Last Beyer: 79

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: Evan On Earth comes off a strong second-place finish in his last start, showing sharp early speed and earning a competitive Beyer figure of 79. Saez takes the mount, and this colt is well-suited to 6 furlongs with his pace profile. Foley has been effective at Churchill Downs, and Evan On Earth looks ready to break through in a softer field.

#3 Top Gun Rocket (8-5)

• Jockey: J.A. Torres (14% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Riley Mott (16% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 81, Late 92

• Last Beyer: 82

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Top Gun Rocket has been knocking on the door, with three second-place finishes in his last four starts and consistent Beyer figures in the low 80s. His late-running style could benefit from a fast early pace, and Torres has ridden him well in prior efforts. He’s a strong contender with proven consistency at this level.

#8 World Chaos (6-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman (13% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 25% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early NA, Late NA (first-time starter)

• Last Beyer: N/A

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Unknown

Comment: World Chaos debuts with strong works, including a sharp :48 breeze from the gate. The Into Mischief colt is well-bred for sprinting, and Gaffalione is an excellent choice for a debut runner. While facing experienced rivals, his strong connections and preparation make him an intriguing value play.

#6 Viking (8-1)

• Jockey: M. Garcia (13% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Randy L. Morse (7% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early NA, Late NA (first-time starter)

• Last Beyer: N/A

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Unknown

Comment: Viking is another first-time starter with strong workouts, including a :48.4 breeze. By City of Light, he boasts a pedigree for speed and class. Morse has been effective with maiden special weight starters, and Viking could be a sleeper in this field if he breaks sharply.

Winner #3 Top Gun Rocket $5.18
Second #7 Evan On Earth $1 Exacta $8.54

Race 4

Post: 2:27 PM ET Dirt

7 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $58,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 30-1 Silent Breeze J. Leparoux 119 Lbs J. Hancock $50,000

• 2 2 ML 3-1 J David I. Moncada 112 Lbs T. Drury, Jr. $50,000

• 3 3 ML 7-2 All the Luck T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs S. Joseph, Jr. $50,000

• 4 4 ML 8-1 Gypsy Dreaming E. Morales 119 Lbs B. Walsh $50,000

• 5 5 ML 15-1 Steel Vengeance R. Bejarano 119 Lbs J. Esquivel $50,000

• 6 6 ML 15-1 Only the Good C. Torres 119 Lbs K. Danner $50,000

• 7 7 ML 4-1 Concrete Cruiser E. Asmussen 114 Lbs J. Sharp $50,000

• 8 8 ML 15-1 Mintastic B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs S. Asmussen $50,000

• 9 9 ML 8-1 Canisius L. Saez 119 Lbs R. Dutrow, Jr. $50,000

• 10 10 ML 10-1 Candyland Phil L. Machado 119 Lbs E. Kenneally $50,000

• 13 A ML 6-1 Sharp Swinger T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs J. Sharp $50,000

Selections 3-2-7-8 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#3 All the Luck (7-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Joseph S. A. Jr. (25% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 27% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 87, Late 37

• Last Beyer: 62

• Field Beyer Average: 52

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: All the Luck has been consistent, with multiple second-place finishes against tougher fields. His experience and ability to stalk the pace are advantageous in this field. He’s a strong contender in a weaker maiden claiming race.

#2 J David (3-1)

• Jockey: I. Moncada (11% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Thomas Drury Jr. (18% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 82, Late 58

• Last Beyer: 64

• Field Beyer Average: 52

• Running Style: Mid-pack

Comment: J David debuted strongly, finishing second in a competitive maiden race at Keeneland. His Beyer of 64 is among the highest in the field, and he should appreciate the stretch out to 7 furlongs. Drury has a strong record with second-time starters, making him a key contender.

#7 Concrete Cruiser (4-1)

• Jockey: E. Asmussen (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Joe Sharp (23% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 25% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 87, Late 59

• Last Beyer: 46

• Field Beyer Average: 52

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Concrete Cruiser has faced tougher competition in maiden special weight company and drops to maiden claiming for the first time. Blinkers come off, which may improve his focus. His past performances at Churchill Downs are respectable, and he’s a strong candidate to hit the board.

#8 Mintastic (15-1)

• Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (12% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Steven Asmussen (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 13% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 72, Late 62

• Last Beyer: 39

• Field Beyer Average: 52

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Mintastic has not shown much in his first two starts, but the drop in class to maiden claiming 50k and a return to dirt may spark improvement. He’s bred for speed and class as a son of Gun Runner, and his workouts suggest he’s capable of more. At 15-1, he’s worth including in exotics.

Race 5

Post: 2:57 PM ET Turf

5 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $127,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) $.20 Derby City-6 / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 4-1 La Foret C. Lanerie 118 Lbs W. Catalano L

• 2 2 ML 15-1 Ice Queen L. Sanchez 120 Lbs J. Alessi L

• 3 3 ML 20-1 Katie's Checkride E. Esquivel 120 Lbs J. Jazdzewski L

• 4 4 ML 9-2 Kick a Rhyme (IRE) L. Saez 120 Lbs M. Maker L

• 5 5 ML 8-1 Morning Miracle J. Torres 118 Lbs J. Blair L

• 6 6 ML 30-1 Krickle F. Arrieta 118 Lbs H. Holsapple L

• 7 7 ML 6-1 Girl of My Dreams C. Roman 118 Lbs A. Meah L

• 8 8 ML 5-2 Fantastical T. Gaffalione 118 Lbs J. Sharp L

• 9 9 ML 8-1 High Fashion Kate R. Bejarano 118 Lbs W. Minnock L

• 10 10 ML 6-1 La La Rose B. Hernandez, Jr. 118 Lbs G. Foley L

Selections 8-9-1-5 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#8 Fantastical (5-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Joe Sharp (23% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 23% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 85, Late 85

• Last Beyer: 78

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Fantastical enters this race in excellent form, having placed in her last five starts, including a competitive second at Churchill Downs last out. Her tactical speed allows her to press the pace without getting embroiled in early speed duels, making her a strong fit for this 5-furlong sprint. With a balanced TimeformUS pace profile, she has the ability to stay close early and finish strongly, a critical factor in short turf races. Gaffalione, a highly skilled rider on the Churchill turf, picks up the mount the mount, a strong vote of confidence in her chances. Additionally, her 78 Beyer in her last outing tops the field, and she has shown an affinity for this surface. Look for her to settle just off the leaders and pounce turning for home.

#9 High Fashion Kate (8-1)

• Jockey: R. Bejarano (11% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Wayne G. Minnock (10% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 113, Late 47

• Last Beyer: 76

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: High Fashion Kate is a front-running specialist who is well-suited to the 5-furlong sprint distance. She wired the field last time out at Churchill Downs, displaying blazing early speed and an impressive 76 Beyer. Her TimeformUS Early Pace figure of 113 highlights her ability to establish the lead, and her recent workouts indicate she’s maintaining her sharpness. While she’ll face pace pressure here, the inside draw gives Bejarano the option to secure a ground-saving trip on the lead or stalk if necessary. If she can clear the field early, she’ll be tough to catch. At 8-1, she provides strong value in a race where speed tends to dominate.

#1 La Foret (4-1)

• Jockey: C.J. Lanerie (8% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Wayne M. Catalano (18% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 22% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 62, Late 94

• Last Beyer: 74

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: La Foret is a talented closer who will benefit from the expected fast pace in this race. Her 74 Beyer figure in her last outing suggests she’s in strong form, and her Late Pace figure of 94 is among the best in the field, indicating she has the ability to make up ground in the stretch. Catalano has had success with turf sprinters, and Lanerie’s patience will suit this filly’s running style. While her one win came on the dirt, she has shown improvement on turf, and the shorter distance should allow her to stay within striking range early. Look for her to make a bold move in the final furlong if the pace collapses.

#5 Vintage Storm (10-1)

• Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (12% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Steven Asmussen (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 78, Late 80

• Last Beyer: 70

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Mid-Pack

Comment: Vintage Storm is an intriguing longshot with a balanced running style that allows him to adapt to different pace scenarios. His most recent effort, a fourth-place finish against slightly tougher competition, was better than it looks on paper, as he encountered traffic and still managed to finish well. His 70 Beyer is competitive in this field, and his steady Late Pace figure of 80 suggests he won’t fade under pressure. Asmussen is known for improving horses over time, and this gelding has been working steadily since his last start. With a clean trip, he could be in the mix late, offering significant value at 10-1.

Winner #8 Fantastical $4.08
Second #9 High Fashion Kate $1 exacta $9.02

Race 6

Post: 3:26 PM ET Dirt

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING: $20,000 | Purse: $50,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 5 (Races 6-10) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 20-1 Merlotti C. Barbosa 120 Lbs J. Wainwright $20,000 L

• 2 2 ML 10-1 El Gunner T. Gaffalione 118 Lbs F. Gutierrez $20,000 L

• 3 3 ML 3-1 Pinfire J. Torres 120 Lbs M. Tomlinson $20,000 L

• 4 4 ML 12-1 Prints Money R. Vazquez 118 Lbs K. Martinez $20,000 L

• 5 5 ML 2-1 Guile L. Saez 120 Lbs M. Maker $20,000 L

• 8 8 ML 30-1 Lead Foot L. Sosa 118 Lbs R. Gonzalez $20,000 L

• 9 9 ML 5-2 Kosher Capone G. Saez 120 Lbs L. Johnston $20,000 L

Selections 5-3-9-4 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#5 Guile (2-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (29% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael J. Maker (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 80, Late 78

• Last Beyer: 79

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Guile comes off a decisive maiden win at Aqueduct, drawing clear in a 7-furlong contest, which matches today’s conditions. The Beyer of 79 from that race is the best in the field, signaling a horse in strong form. Maker’s barn excels with horses stretching out to seven furlongs, and the addition of Saez, Churchill’s leading jockey, further enhances his chances. His balanced pace figures indicate tactical versatility, allowing him to stalk the leaders and make his move turning for home. He’s a logical top choice in this field.

#3 Pinfire (3-1)

• Jockey: J.A. Torres (14% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael A. Tomlinson (10% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 99, Late 60

• Last Beyer: 74

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Pinfire enters this race off a sharp runner-up finish against similar company at Churchill Downs, posting a solid 74 Beyer. He pressed the pace that day, showing tactical speed and the ability to sustain his effort through the lane. Tomlinson’s runners often improve in their second starts off a layoff, and the recent :48 workout suggests he’s ready to fire. With a favorable draw, Torres should have him well-positioned to challenge the leaders entering the stretch.

#9 Kosher Capone (5-2)

• Jockey: G. Saez (12% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Lane D. Johnston (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 81, Late 83

• Last Beyer: 69

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Kosher Capone broke his maiden in style at Churchill Downs last out, rallying to win a 7-furlong maiden special weight. The Beyer of 69 is slightly below the top contenders, but his late pace figures suggest he’ll be a threat if the early fractions are quick. With an improving form cycle and experience over this track and distance, he’s a key player who could take another step forward.

#4 Prints Money (12-1)

• Jockey: R.A. Vazquez (10% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Kelli Martinez (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 94, Late 54

• Last Beyer: 67

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: Prints Money has shown flashes of ability, including a strong third-place finish in his last start at Churchill Downs. While his Beyer figures are slightly below the top choices, his early pace figures give him an edge in a race that could favor front-runners. Martinez’s barn has been hitting the board at a solid clip with claimers, and at 12-1, he’s an overlay with potential to hit the board in exotics.

Winner #3 Pinfire $7.34
Second #5 Guile $1 Exacta $5.95

Race 7

Post: 3:55 PM ET Dirt

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 6-1 Spurgeon B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

• 2 2 ML 3-1 Scorpius F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox

• 3 3 ML 9-2 Publisher T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs S. Asmussen

• 4 4 ML 5-1 Executive J. Torres 119 Lbs W. Mott

• 5 5 ML 15-1 Harvest n'Hearth J. Leparoux 119 Lbs K. McPeek

• 6 6 ML 12-1 Speechless L. Machado 119 Lbs R. Brisset

• 7 7 ML 7-2 Kinetic Control C. Lanerie 119 Lbs D. Romans

• 8 8 ML 4-1 Morlock L. Saez 119 Lbs E. Kenneally

Selections 3-2-7-8 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#3 Publisher (9-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Steven Asmussen (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 84, Late 75

• Last Beyer: 67

• Field Beyer Average: 61

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Publisher has been knocking on the door in maiden special weight company, with two strong third-place finishes, including a solid effort over a sloppy track at Churchill. His Beyer figures indicate he’s competitive, and his stalking style is well-suited for the projected pace scenario. Gaffalione takes the mount, signaling confidence from the barn. This colt’s pedigree by American Pharoah out of a Proud Citizen mare suggests he’ll improve with added distance, making him a prime contender.

#2 Scorpius (3-1)

• Jockey: F. Geroux (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Brad H. Cox (27% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 28% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 127, Late 55

• Last Beyer: 64

• Field Beyer Average: 61

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: Scorpius debuted with a game effort on the turf at Keeneland, setting a fast early pace before tiring late to finish fifth. The switch to dirt is logical, given his pedigree by Into Mischief, and Cox’s barn excels with horses making their second start (27% win rate). His strong early pace figure suggests he’ll be forwardly placed, and Geroux is skilled at rationing speed on the lead. If he handles the surface change, Scorpius will be tough to catch.

#7 Kinetic Control (7-2)

• Jockey: C.J. Lanerie (8% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Dale Romans (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 17% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 89, Late 80

• Last Beyer: 78

• Field Beyer Average: 61

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: His second-place finish at Churchill two back came against a strong field, where he earned a field-topping 78 Beyer. Lanerie’s patient riding style complements this colt’s late-running approach, and the expected early pace should set up well for him.

#8 Morlock (4-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (29% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Eddie Kenneally (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 103, Late 61

• Last Beyer: 76

• Field Beyer Average: 61

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: Morlock has finished second in his last three starts, including a close effort at Keeneland in a 1 1/16-mile event. Blinkers go on today, which could help sharpen his focus in the stretch. His recent works are strong, and if he can carry his speed effectively, he’ll be a factor turning for home.

Winner #7 Kinetic Control $7.62
Second #8 Morlock $1 Exacta $13.02
Third #3 Publisher .50 Trifecta $32.36

Race 8

Post: 4:25 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $68,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 5-1 Payne C. Torres 120 Lbs E. Foster $40,000 L

• 2 2 ML 7-2 One Giant Leap L. Machado 120 Lbs C. Hartman $40,000 L

• 3 3 ML 10-1 Dazzlemesilver R. Vazquez 120 Lbs J. Sweezey $40,000 L

• 4 4 ML 20-1 Chipofftheoldblock E. Morales 120 Lbs M. Lauer $40,000 L

• 5 5 ML 5-1 G T Five Hundred B. Hernandez, Jr. 120 Lbs S. Asmussen $40,000 L

• 6 6 ML 6-1 I Got No Munny E. Asmussen 115 Lbs S. Asmussen $40,000 L

• 7 7 ML 8-1 Pressure G. Saez 120 Lbs M. Shirer $40,000 L

• 8 8 ML 2-1 Friar Laurence T. Gaffalione 120 Lbs T. Amoss $40,000 L

Selections 8-1-2-5 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#8 Friar Laurence (2-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Thomas Amoss (18% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 24% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 75, Late 84

• Last Beyer: 81

• Field Beyer Average: 78

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Friar Laurence enters this race in strong form, having finished second in a $40,000 claiming event at Keeneland last time out. He earned a solid 81 Beyer in that effort, rallying late in a fast-paced contest. Gaffalione takes over the mount, a notable upgrade, and his late pace figures suggest he’ll benefit from a race with plenty of early speed. Amoss claimed this one last out and hits at 26% with his claims in their first start.

#1 Payne (5-1)

• Jockey: C.A. Torres (15% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Eric Foster (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 75, Late 86

• Last Beyer: 87

• Field Beyer Average: 78

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Payne is a seasoned runner with eight career wins and comes off a strong fourth-place finish in a competitive $32,000 claiming event. His late-running style will benefit from the fast fractions expected here, and his career-high Beyer of 99 shows he has the back class to win at this level. Torres has ridden him effectively in past starts, and the return to Churchill Downs, where he has hit the board three times in eight attempts, is a positive. If the pace collapses, Payne could rally late to surprise.

#2 One Giant Leap (6-1)

• Jockey: F. Geroux (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Brad H. Cox (27% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 28% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 92, Late 78

• Last Beyer: 78

• Field Beyer Average: 78

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: One Giant Leap brings strong credentials into this claiming contest, dropping in class after facing allowance-level competition in his previous starts. His early pace figures, including a robust 105 TimeformUS Early Pace number, suggest he can establish or sit close to the lead in this shorter sprint. Cox has a stellar record in claiming races, and Geroux, his go-to rider, excels at maximizing the potential of speed horses in these setups. While his last Beyer of 74 is slightly below the top contenders, it came in a tougher race, and the class relief here makes him a legitimate threat. If he secures a clean break, expect him to be a significant factor in the outcome.

#5 G T Five Hundred (5-1)

• Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (12% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Steven Asmussen (17% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 119, Late 50

• Last Beyer: 74

• Field Beyer Average: 78

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: G T Five Hundred early speed, highlighted by a 119 Early Pace figure, could help him control the tempo in a race loaded with mid-pack runners and closers. While his late figures are a concern, his ability to secure a favorable trip on the front end makes him dangerous if left uncontested. With Asmussen in his corner, he’s a solid player for exotics.

Winner #8 Friar Laurence $4.48
Second #1 Payne #1 Exacta $19.80
Third #2 One Giant Leap .50 Trifecta $43.93

Race 9

Post: 4:55 PM ET Turf

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $127,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 15-1 Egyptian Candy L. Machado 118 Lbs D. Leitch L

• 2 2 ML 15-1 Moonlight Gambler C. Torres 118 Lbs B. Colebrook L

• 3 3 ML 5-1 Bourbon Thief C. Landeros 120 Lbs I. Wilkes L

• 4 4 ML 12-1 Janey Creed R. Bejarano 118 Lbs B. Hughes L

• 5 5 ML 20-1 Berna Ditty F. De La Cruz 118 Lbs J. Greenhill L

• 6 6 ML 6-1 Big Trouble J. Torres 118 Lbs G. Foley L

• 7 7 ML 5-2 Hay Stack T. Gaffalione 121 Lbs D. Beckman L

• 8 8 ML 3-1 Shiloh's Mistress L. Saez 118 Lbs M. Maker L

• 10 10 ML 15-1 Classy'n Connected B. Hernandez, Jr. 118 Lbs T. Drury, Jr. L

• 11 A ML 6-1 Heart Spin I. Moncada 114 Lbs A. Navarrete L

Selections 8-7-(12)-6-3 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#8 Shiloh's Mistress (3-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (29% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael Maker (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 72, Late 84

• Last Beyer: 87

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Shiloh's Mistress has been knocking on the door at this level, consistently earning strong figures against quality fields. Her third-place finish last out at Keeneland came against a tough group, and she ran evenly while facing a challenging pace setup. Maker’s record with turf routers at Churchill is strong, and Saez’s aggressive riding style fits this filly’s stalking approach perfectly. Her versatility and ability to quicken in the stretch make her the horse to beat.

#7 Hay Stack (5-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: D. Whitworth (13% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 22% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 66, Late 99

• Last Beyer: 81

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Hay Stack brings a strong closing kick to this field, with a Late Pace figure of 99 that is among the best here. She’s been competitive in allowance company throughout the year, including a sharp effort at Keeneland last out, where she overcame traffic to finish fourth in a deep field. Gaffalione’s experience at Churchill Downs is a major asset, and the projected fast early fractions should allow her to unleash her late rally effectively.

#12 Irish Patsy (8-1) also eligible

• Jockey: F. Geroux (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael McCarthy (17% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 57, Late 109

• Last Beyer: 84

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Deep Closer

Comment: Irish Patsy has shown steady improvement and is a dangerous closer who thrives in races with a fast pace. Her strong Late Pace figure of 109 suggests she can make a big move in the stretch if the leaders tire. McCarthy excels with turf routers, and Geroux’s tactical abilities will ensure she gets the best trip possible. If the pace collapses, Irish Patsy is a live longshot who could upset this field at generous odds.

#6 Big Trouble (6-1)

· Jockey: J.A. Torres (14% win rate in 2024)

· Trainer: Greg Foley (15% win rate in 2024)

· Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

· TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 70

· Last Beyer: 79

· Field Beyer Average: 81

· Running Style: Speed

Comment: Big Trouble comes into this race after a solid fifth-place finish in a competitive allowance race at Keeneland. His Early Pace figure of 111 is among the best in the field, suggesting he has the speed to secure a forward position or even dictate terms. Trainer Greg Foley has a strong record with turf routers, and Torres’s aggressive riding style complements this colt’s front-running tendencies. If Big Trouble can replicate his recent form and avoid heavy pressure early, he has a legitimate chance to take this field gate-to-wire. His consistent performances and tactical speed make him a dangerous contender at a fair price..

#3 Bourbon Thief (5-1)

• Jockey: C. Landeros (12% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Ian Wilkes (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 13% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 68, Late 98

• Last Beyer: 75

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Mid-Pack

Comment: Bourbon Thief broke her maiden impressively last time out over this turf course, showcasing her ability to handle the distance and surface. Her balanced pace profile indicates she can stay within striking range and still have enough left to finish strongly. While her Beyer figures are slightly below the top contenders, her improving form makes her an appealing option for the exotics. Look for her to take another step forward against this tougher field.

Winner #8 Shiloh’s Mistress $7.22
Second #6 Big Trouble $1 Exacta $13.99
Third #3 Bourbon Thief .50 Trifecta $25.77

Race 10

Post: 5:24 PM ET Dirt

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $30,000 | Purse: $50,000 Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 2 2 ML 5-1 Halfway Tempted C. Lanerie 121 Lbs D. Romans $30,000

• 4 4 ML 9-2 Sound of Victory F. Geroux 121 Lbs R. Brisset $30,000 L

• 5 5 ML 12-1 Saturday Long Legs I. Moncada 117 Lbs M. Frazier $30,000

• 7 7 ML 8-1 Mo Hope M. Garcia 124 Lbs P. McGee $30,000 L

• 8 8 ML 3-1 Phreddie Mac L. Saez 121 Lbs S. Asmussen $30,000 L

• 9 9 ML 15-1 Speed Institute E. Morales 124 Lbs M. Salas $30,000 L

Selections 8-2-4 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#8 Phreddie Mac (3-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (29% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Steven Asmussen (17% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 28% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 64, Late 87

• Last Beyer: 70

• Field Beyer Average: 67

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Phreddie Mac is dropping in class from maiden special weight company, a significant advantage for a horse that has shown ability against tougher competition. His Beyer of 70 in recent starts suggests he has the speed to contend, and Saez’s expertise will help him navigate through traffic. If the pace is swift upfront, look for Phreddie Mac to close strongly in the stretch.

#2 Halfway Tempted (6-1)

• Jockey: C.J. Lanerie (8% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Dale Romans (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 86, Late 67

• Last Beyer: 71

• Field Beyer Average: 67

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Halfway Tempted debuted with a strong third-place finish in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, earning a Beyer of 71. Despite being lightly raced, he showed an ability to handle pressure and close ground late. Romans is skilled at stretching out second-time starters, and this colt’s pedigree by Yoshida suggests he’ll appreciate the added distance. Lanerie’s familiarity with the Churchill surface and ability to guide pace-forward horses makes Halfway Tempted a viable contender.

#4 Sound of Victory (8-1)

• Jockey: F. Geroux (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset (19% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 81, Late 87

• Last Beyer: 62

• Field Beyer Average: 67

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Sound of Victory’s Late Pace figure of 87 highlights his ability to finish strongly, and Geroux is an ideal fit for this closer. Brisset’s high win rate with maiden claimers adds confidence,.

Winner #8 Phreddie Mac $6.36