Saturday, November 23, 2024

Churchill Downs

Battaglia’s Picks recommends playing Exacta Boxes:

• Surefire Selections (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐): Prime picks with the highest confidence level. Place your bets with utmost assurance.

• Stellar Selections (⭐⭐⭐⭐): Strong contenders with solid prospects. A very favorable betting choice.

• Notable Nominations (⭐⭐⭐): Worthy of attention, these picks hold intriguing potential.

• Moderate Mentions (⭐⭐): Proceed with caution. These horses present some possibilities, but also notable risks.

• Consider Skipping (⭐): Best to observe. The risks likely outweigh the potential rewards in these races.

Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET Dirt

7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $50,000 | Purse: $58,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (Races 1-5) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 6-1 Red Royalty T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs M. Tomlinson $50,000

• 2 2 ML 20-1 Aunt Dixie S. Camacho, Jr. 119 Lbs S. Hobby $50,000

• 3 3 ML 5-1 Flash Master I. Moncada 112 Lbs T. Drury, Jr. $50,000

• 4 4 ML 10-1 Alltail R. Vazquez 119 Lbs J. Ortiz $50,000

• 5 5 ML 5-1 Centimorgan B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek $50,000

• 6 6 ML 10-1 Mom's Cheesecake J. Loveberry 119 Lbs L. Pierce $50,000

• 7 7 ML 9-2 Magnetic Beach L. Machado 119 Lbs J. Sweezey $50,000

• 8 8 ML 4-1 Ranch Life E. Roman 119 Lbs M. Douaihy $50,000

• 9 9 ML 7-2 Mezcalifornia F. Arrieta 119 Lbs J. Cano $50,000

Selections 9-7-8-3 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#9 Mezcalifornia (7-2)

• Jockey: F. Arrieta (12%)

• Trainer: Juan Cano (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 79, Late 69

• Last Beyer: 63

• Field Beyer Average: 48

• Running Style: Presser
  
  Comment: After being claimed by Juan Cano last out, Mezcalifornia has every reason to improve here. She’s shown flashes of promise, including a solid third-place finish sprinting 6f at Saratoga earlier this year with a 63 Beyer, well above this field’s average. Her inside trip on Nov. 6 against tougher left her flat late but was not indicative of her potential. The cutback to 7 furlongs suits her tactical style, especially if she can sit just off a contested pace.

#7 Magnetic Beach (9-2)

• Jockey: L. Machado (15%)

• Trainer: J. Sweezey (13%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 5%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 85, Late 60

• Last Beyer: 48

• Field Beyer Average: 48

• Running Style: Stalker
  
  Comment: was game in her debut at Keeneland, chasing a fast pace before tiring late to finish second. Her last start in the slop at Churchill Downs saw her pressed wide and fading after chasing a quick early tempo. The equipment change and better ground here could help her stay more engaged through the stretch. The $19,000 purchase price makes her a relative bargain, and her work tab suggests she’s holding her condition well.

#8 Ranch Life (4-1)

• Jockey: E. A. Roman (16%)

• Trainer: Michel Douaihy (11%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 0%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 66, Late 62

• Last Beyer: 46

• Field Beyer Average: 48

• Running Style: Closer
  
  Comment: Ranch Life’s recent second-place finish on a sloppy Churchill track at 6f revealed her ability to make up ground late despite a troubled trip. Her form over both dry and wet surfaces highlights her adaptability, and her pedigree by American Freedom (Pulpit) suggests continued improvement with maturity. While she lacks early speed, her closing punch is ideal in a field with several speed types. If the front-runners overdo it, Ranch Life will be coming late to pick up the pieces. Her ability to handle Churchill’s surface makes her a must-use in exotics.

#3 Flash Master (5-1)

• Jockey: I. Moncada (14%)

• Trainer: T. Drury Jr. (18%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 30%

• TimeformUS Pace: Not available

• Last Beyer: N/A (Debut)

• Field Beyer Average: 48

• Running Style: Unknown (Debut)
  
  Comment: Trainer Tom Drury strikes at an impressive 24% with debut runners, and Flash Master has all the signals of a prepared first-timer. Her sire, Mastery, consistently produces runners with early speed, while her dam, One Fast Frog, showed brilliance in sprints. Her work tab is peppered with sharp efforts, including a standout 4f in :47.2 on Nov. 17, ranking second of 57. The filly’s tactical potential gives her an edge in this mixed group, and if she breaks alertly, she could be a factor at a square price. Her recent 3f blowout in :36.2 indicates she’s ready to fire.

Winner #3 Flash Master $7.66
Second #7 Magnetic Beach $1 Exacta $27.43
Third #9 Mezcalifornia .50 Trifecta $59.71
Fourht #8 Ranch Life .10 Super $53.56

Race 2

Post: 1:29 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING: $20,000 | Purse: $52,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 8-1 Lil Town Sis E. Asmussen 115 Lbs S. Asmussen $20,000 L

• 2 2 ML 20-1 Lookin Royal R. Miranda 120 Lbs P. Huffman $20,000 L

• 3 3 ML 9-2 Blaze On C. Lanerie 120 Lbs K. Wagner $20,000

• 4 4 ML 20-1 Chica Chula A. Jimenez 120 Lbs K. Calvo $20,000

• 5 5 ML 5-1 Secret Glenda S. Bermudez 118 Lbs A. West $20,000 L

• 6 6 ML 4-1 Ghostly Night F. Arrieta 120 Lbs M. Shirer $20,000 L

• 7 7 ML 10-1 Say Cheese R. Arrieta 120 Lbs B. McDonnell $20,000 L

• 8 8 ML 6-5 Awesome Annmarie S. Camacho, Jr. 120 Lbs D. Jacobson $20,000 L

Selections 8-6-3-5 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

#8 Awesome Annmarie (6-5)

• Jockey: S. Camacho Jr. (14%)

• Trainer: David Jacobson (16%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 26%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 107, Late 55

• Last Beyer: 81

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Awesome Annmarie has been in top form this year, with three wins, a second and three thirds from eleven starts. She most recently showed grit at Keeneland, cruising to a dominant 81 Beyer win, and her stalking style is perfectly suited for this field with multiple pace players. Trainer David Jacobson excels with claimers, boasting a 17% strike rate, and Camacho’s 23% success rate with Jacobson this year further bolsters confidence. Expect another strong showing at likely short odds.

#6 Ghostly Night (4-1)

• Jockey: F. Arrieta (12%)

• Trainer: Matt Shirer (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 22%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 78, Late 65

• Last Beyer: 72

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Mid-pack closer
  Comment: Ghostly Night is an honest mare who rarely throws in a bad effort. Her last start on a sloppy Churchill track saw her rally from mid-pack to grab second, showing she’s still sharp. The projected pace scenario should give her ample targets to run at late. A reliable option for exactas and trifectas.

#3 Blaze On (9-2)

• Jockey: C. Lanerie (13%)

• Trainer: Karin Wagner (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Not available

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 103, Late 58

• Last Beyer: 78

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Speed
  Comment: Blaze On is a speedy filly who thrives when able to dictate terms early. While her last three starts at Laurel and Delaware were lackluster, her 78 Beyer win in July over a similar pace setup signals her upside if allowed to control the tempo. Lanerie, known for his patient handling, may need to coax her through the early fractions to save enough for the finish. A key pace factor, she could steal this race if unpressured.

#5 Secret Glenda (5-1)

• Jockey: S. Bermudez (14%)

• Trainer: Aaron West (19%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 24%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 121, Late 39

• Last Beyer: 75

• Field Beyer Average: 70

• Running Style: Speed
  Comment: Secret Glenda possesses blazing early speed, with a field-topping Early Pace figure of 121. Her win two starts ago at Belterra showed her ability to wire fields under pressure. Although her late figures indicate she may be vulnerable in deep stretch, she’s a live wire if she clears early and can fend off challengers. She’s worth including for exotics at a decent price.

Winner #6 Ghostly Night $7.40
Second #8 Awesome Annmarie $1 exacta $6.87
Third #3  Blaze On .50 Trifecta $8.68
Fourth #5 Secret Glenda .10 Super $5.03

Race 3

Post: 1:58 PM ET Dirt

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $30,000 | Purse: $54,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 12-1 Quebrancho W. Rodriguez 118 Lbs I. Bahena $30,000 L

• 2 2 ML 10-1 Wicked Melody G. Corrales 120 Lbs G. Garcia $30,000 L

• 3 3 ML 3-1 Now and Later T. Gaffalione 121 Lbs J. Sharp $30,000 L

• 4 4 ML 6-1 Gatlinburg K. Asmussen 121 Lbs S. Asmussen $30,000 L

• 5 5 ML 6-1 Sagittarius E. Asmussen 116 Lbs S. Asmussen $30,000 L

• 6 6 ML 5-2 Mo Rhodes E. Morales 118 Lbs T. Amoss $30,000 L

• 7 7 ML 8-1 My Friend Louie J. Loveberry 121 Lbs C. Murphy $30,000 L

• 8 8 ML 20-1 High Enough B. Hernandez, Jr. 118 Lbs D. Habeeb $30,000 L

• 9 9 ML 15-1 Ode to Balius C. Torres 118 Lbs C. Torres $30,000

• 10 10 ML 20-1 Gotta Have Dreams E. Esquivel 118 Lbs A. Shorter $30,000 L

• 11 11 ML 12-1 What's Up Doc L. Machado 121 Lbs C. Hartman $30,000 L

Selections 6-5-9-3 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#6 Mo Rhodes (5-2)

• Jockey: E. Morales (13%)

• Trainer: Thomas Amoss (18%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 18%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 74, Late 87

• Last Beyer: 78

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Mo Rhodes has shown solid improvement over his last few starts, including a game second-place finish at this level in his most recent outing. He split horses late to fend off challengers, demonstrating grit and a strong late kick. With a versatile running style and a trainer who excels with claimers (23%), he is a deserving favorite in this spot. Look for him to sit mid-pack and make a decisive move around the far turn.

#5 Sagittarius (6-1)

• Jockey: E. Asmussen (17%)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 13%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 68, Late 80

• Last Beyer: 62

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Mid-pack closer
  Comment: Sagittarius drops into this claiming level after running against slightly tougher company. His lone win came at a similar distance and level, and his ability to stalk and pounce could work well here given the expected pace scenario. While he has yet to win at Churchill Downs, his trainer's sharp handling and consistent workouts suggest he's ready for a big effort at a price.

#9 Ode to Balius (15-1)

• Jockey: C. Torres (6%)

• Trainer: Concepcion Torres (5%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 0%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 78, Late 83

• Last Beyer: 74

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Presser
  Comment: This longshot deserves a look based on his consistent efforts against stronger competition. His Beyer figures are competitive for this field, and his stalking style gives him options in a race with a mix of early speed and closers. If the favorites falter, Ode to Balius has the tools to pick up the pieces late and hit the board.

#3 Now and Later (4-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (16%)

• Trainer: Joe Sharp (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 70, Late 85

• Last Beyer: 75

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Presser
  Comment: Now and Later has been competitive at this level, with a recent third-place finish demonstrating his ability to stay close to the pace and sustain his run. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, with a 16% win rate, is adept at positioning horses effectively, which bodes well for Now and Later's chances. Trainer Joe Sharp's 23% win rate further adds confidence. Look for Now and Later to be prominently placed and to make a strong bid in the stretch.

#4 Gatlinburg (5-1)

• Jockey: K. Asmussen (12%)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 10%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 72, Late 82

• Last Beyer: 70

• Field Beyer Average: 72

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Gatlinburg has been consistent in his performances, often finishing in the money at this level. His stalking style allows him to adapt to various pace scenarios, and under the training of Steve Asmussen, he is well-prepared for this race. Jockey K. Asmussen's 12% win rate complements the horse's capabilities. Expect Gatlinburg to be in contention throughout and to make a solid run in the final furlongs.

Race 4

Post: 2:28 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $58,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 5 (Races 4-8) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 20-1 Brilliant Call E. Morales 122 Lbs G. Forster $50,000 L

• 2 2 ML 7-2 Redeposit T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs G. Foley $50,000 L

• 3 3 ML 4-1 Levee Was Dry E. Asmussen 119 Lbs S. Asmussen $50,000 L

• 4 4 ML 9-2 Stinger Bee L. Machado 122 Lbs I. Correas IV $50,000 L

• 5 5 ML 6-1 Skyler W. Rodriguez 124 Lbs R. Barrett $50,000 L

• 6 6 ML 6-1 Vdaytothetenacious C. Lanerie 122 Lbs D. Romans $50,000 L

• 7 7 ML 10-1 Added Mischief F. Arrieta 124 Lbs T. Van Berg $50,000 L

• 8 8 ML 8-1 Zapping Strike A. Calleja 115 Lbs R. Labra $50,000 L

• 9 9 ML 10-1 Holster K. Asmussen 122 Lbs S. Asmussen $50,000 L

• 10 10 ML 5-1 Summonyourcourage L. Saez 124 Lbs J. Esquivel $50,000 L

• 11 11 ML 15-1 To My Taste I. Moncada 117 Lbs D. Olivo $50,000

Selections 2-3-4-6 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#2 Redeposit (7-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22%)

• Trainer: Gregory Foley (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 25%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 102, Late 41

• Last Beyer: 58

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Presser
  Comment: Shows consistent form with three in-the-money finishes from five starts.. His solid early pace figures suggest he’ll be prominent early, and his pedigree (Omaha Beach out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare) hints at long-term upside. Recent workouts show maintenance pattern. Well-positioned tactically with good early speed figures. Strong jockey/trainer combo at Churchill.

#3 Levee Was Dry (4-1)

• Jockey: E. Asmussen (17%)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 99, Late 66

• Last Beyer: 77

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Recently claimed by Steve Asmussen, Levee Was Dry moves up in claiming price after a strong runner-up effort on a sloppy Churchill Downs track. His ability to handle off conditions and sustain a rally into quick fractions bodes well for this setup. Asmussen’s sharp eye for improvement post-claim adds confidence. He’s a consistent type with Beyer figures that make him competitive here.

#4 Stinger Bee (9-2)

• Jockey: L. Machado (19%)

• Trainer: Ignacio Correas IV (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 100, Late 55

• Last Beyer: 80

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Stalker/Presser
  Comment: Stinger Bee comes into this race off a couple of disappointing finishes, but his prior form includes a game runner-up effort at Fair Grounds with an 80 Beyer, which towers over this field. He has solid tactical speed and should sit a favorable stalking trip just behind the early leaders. His recent workouts signal readiness for a better effort.

#6 Vdaytothetenacious (6-1)

• Jockey: C. Lanerie (13%)

• Trainer: Dale Romans (12%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 17%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 75, Late 68

• Last Beyer: 59

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Mid-pack closer
  Comment: Vdaytothetenacious showed some promise in his debut at Keeneland despite running greenly. His connections, led by Dale Romans, excel at getting second-time starters to progress, and his sharp works at Churchill Downs suggest he’s figuring things out. Look for him to sit mid-pack and improve with a cleaner trip.

Race 5

Post: 2:57 PM ET Turf

1 Mile | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 12-1 Feeling Beachy R. Santana, Jr. 121 Lbs N. Casse L

• 2 2 ML 9-2 One Front War L. Saez 121 Lbs M. Maker L

• 3 3 ML 20-1 Argentinidad I. Ayala 121 Lbs L. Seglin

• 4 4 ML 12-1 Just a Coed B. Hernandez, Jr. 121 Lbs W. Calhoun L

• 5 5 ML 3-1 Ripassare T. Gaffalione 121 Lbs B. Walsh L

• 6 6 ML 7-2 My Brazilian Girl J. Leparoux 121 Lbs K. Wadsworth L

• 7 7 ML 15-1 Redo R. Vazquez 121 Lbs J. Ortiz L

• 8 8 ML 4-1 High Shot L. Machado 121 Lbs M. Simms, Jr. L

• 9 9 ML 8-1 Smokin Hot Blonde R. Bejarano 121 Lbs J. Kelley

• 10 10 ML 20-1 Zappera G. Ashton 124 Lbs P. Brown, Jr. L

• 11 11 ML 20-1 Yammy Yammy Bella M. Pedroza, Jr. 121 Lbs M. Salas

• 12 12 ML 15-1 Fifth of May C. Torres 121 Lbs B. Colebrook L

• 13 A ML 30-1 Freak City A. Achard 121 Lbs M. Jacobs L

• 14 A ML 12-1 Bundchen T. Gaffalione 121 Lbs W. Ward L

• 15 A ML 20-1 Miss Susan B J. Felix 121 Lbs R. Labra L

• 16 M ML 7-2 Shezalittlestinker C. Lanerie 121 Lbs W. Catalano L

Selections 6-5-8 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#6 My Brazilian Girl (7-2)

• Jockey: J.R. Leparoux (6%)

• Trainer: Kathleen Wadsworth (0%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 0%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 110, Late 83

• Last Beyer: 80

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Presser
  Comment: Strong recent form, consistently competitive. Adds blinkers and should appreciate the two turns. Price potential due to trainer change.She was a game third at Keeneland, where she pressed the pace and stayed on gamely. Her pedigree by Golden Lad and her sharp early pace figures make her dangerous if she clears early. Blinkers on could sharpen her focus and aid in breaking her maiden.

#5 Ripassare (3-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22%)

• Trainer: Brendan Walsh (21%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 19%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 94, Late 61

• Last Beyer: 64

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Closer
  Comment: Ripassare ran an eye-catching second on debut at Kentucky Downs in a competitive field, closing strongly late. Her pedigree (by Vino Rosso) suggests she’ll relish today’s stretch to a mile. With Gaffalione aboard, expect a well-timed ride from off the pace. She’s a logical favorite but offers limited value at 3-1.

#8 High Shot (4-1)

• Jockey: L. Machado (19%)

• Trainer: Michael Simms (25%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 81, Late 74

• Last Beyer: 77

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Presser/Stalker
  Comment: High Shot’s second-place finish at Keeneland in her most recent start signals she’s ready to win. Her tactical speed and ability to sustain a rally make her versatile in this field. She’s bred to handle the mile, and her improving Beyer figures make her a serious player at decent odds.

Winner #5 Ripassare $6.28
Second #8 Hight Shot $1 exacta $18.16
Third #6 My Brazilian Girl .50 Trifecta $30.79

Race 6

Post: 3:26 PM ET Dirt

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $80,000 | Purse: $134,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.20 Derby City-6 / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 5-2 Harrodsburg T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs M. Tomlinson L

• 2 2 ML 9-2 Banjo Chris L. Machado 118 Lbs G. Wismer L

• 3 3 ML 8-1 Groveland R. Bejarano 120 Lbs E. Harty

• 4 4 ML 30-1 Midnight Escape G. Ashton 120 Lbs P. Brown, Jr. $80,000 L

• 5 5 ML 7-2 Banishing S. Camacho, Jr. 120 Lbs D. Jacobson L

• 6 6 ML 20-1 Mahaamel F. Arrieta 120 Lbs G. Londono L

• 7 7 ML 30-1 Lucky Shot C. Roman 120 Lbs C. Banks $80,000 L

• 8 8 ML 5-1 Underhill's Tab C. Torres 120 Lbs R. Medina L

• 9 9 ML 4-1 Wico (IRE) G. Corrales 120 Lbs W. Ward L

Selections 1-9-5-2 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#1 Harrodsburg (5-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22%)

• Trainer: Michael Tomlinson (10%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 25%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 65

• Last Beyer: 96

• Field Beyer Average: 91

• Running Style: Speed
  Comment: Harrodsburg is a game front-runner, coming off a sharp victory at Churchill Downs where he wired the field in a tough allowance race. His early pace figures are tops in the field, and his tactical speed gives him an edge to dictate terms again. Trainer Michael Tomlinson boasts a solid 20% win rate with horses coming off a win, and Gaffalione is a master at nursing speed. Look for him to try to steal it up front.

#9 Wico (4-1)

• Jockey: G. Corrales (16%)

• Trainer: Wesley Ward (25%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 27%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 104, Late 83

• Last Beyer: 93

• Field Beyer Average: 91

• Running Style: Presser
  Comment: Wico has been knocking on the door at this level, including a game second when last seen here at Churchill where he pressed a hot pace and held on gamely. His pedigree (No Nay Never x Unbridled’s Song) indicates he’s built for sprinting. With a top-notch conditioner in Wesley Ward and improving form, Wico should get a perfect stalking trip to pounce on the leaders late.

#5 Banishing (7-2)

• Jockey: S. Camacho Jr. (14%)

• Trainer: David Jacobson (16%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 82, Late 98

• Last Beyer: 91

• Field Beyer Average: 91

• Running Style: Closer
  Comment: Banishing enters off a sharp runner-up effort in allowance company at Churchill, showing a powerful late rally despite being herded in deep stretch. Expect Banishing to close with a rush if the early fractions are swift.

#2 Banjo Chris (9-2)

• Jockey: L. Machado (19%)

• Trainer: Glenn Wismer (13%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 12%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 88, Late 95

• Last Beyer: 84

• Field Beyer Average: 91

• Running Style: Mid-pack stalker
  Comment: Banjo Chris has been a consistent performer at this level. While his late pace figures suggest he prefers slightly shorter distances, his form and class keep him in the mix. He’ll need to avoid traffic to make a serious impact here.

Winner #5 Banishing $5.60
Second #1 Harrodsburg $1 Exacta $10.05
Third #9 Winco .50 Trifecta $14.19
Fourth #2 Banjo Chris .10 Super $6.60

Race 7

Post: 3:55 PM ET Dirt

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Pick 5 (7-11) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 15-1 Tartarian K. Leonard 119 Lbs J. Ennis

• 2 2 ML 8-1 Yinzer C. Torres 119 Lbs S. Asmussen

• 3 3 ML 20-1 Knicks Glory L. Machado 119 Lbs B. Colebrook

• 4 4 ML 4-1 Troubleshooting E. Morales 119 Lbs G. Foley

• 5 5 ML 12-1 Restless Renegade B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

• 6 6 ML 30-1 Oh Please A. Calleja 112 Lbs M. Elliott

• 7 7 ML 5-2 Sea Vista F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox

• 8 8 ML 20-1 Aerate L. Saez 119 Lbs B. Lynch

• 9 9 ML 12-1 Tomasello R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs M. Casse

• 10 10 ML 3-1 Mo Quality T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs C. Davis

• 11 11 ML 15-1 Wise Decision J. Alvarado 119 Lbs D. Lukas

• 12 12 ML 12-1 Putting Eagle R. Bejarano 119 Lbs C. Hartman

• 13 A ML 12-1 Vekoma Kid C. Landeros 119 Lbs K. Black

• 14 A ML 15-1 Solid Left L. Saez 119 Lbs B. Lynch

Selections 10-7-2-4 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#10 Mo Quality (3-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22%)

• Trainer: Christopher Davis (19%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 52, Late 92

• Last Beyer: 70

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Closer
  Comment: Mo Quality put in a visually impressive effort last time, closing sharply to grab second against a competitive Maiden Special Weight field at Keeneland. His pedigree (by Mo Town) and ability to finish strongly over a fast pace make him a standout in this field. Gaffalione takes the mount, and the projected setup with early speed should suit his running style. Expect a well-timed late rally.

#7 Sea Vista (5-2)

• Jockey: F. Geroux (19%)

• Trainer: Brad Cox (27%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 28%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 77, Late 87

• Last Beyer: 80

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Sea Vista debuted well, finishing second over a muddy Saratoga track. The son of Street Sense shows natural class and comes from the powerhouse Cox barn, which is hitting at a remarkable 27% win rate this year. His steady work tab at Turfway highlights readiness, and Geroux, a reliable pilot, should place him in a stalking position. If the pace is honest, Sea Vista will have every chance to score here.

#2 Yinzer (8-1)

• Jockey: C. Torres (15%)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 80, Late 75

• Last Beyer: N/A (First-Time Starter)

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Unknown (Debut)
  Comment: Yinzer, a $1 million purchase at auction, debuts with a strong work patternHis sire, Twirling Candy, has produced several precocious juveniles, and his dam adds class to his pedigree. While Asmussen’s first-time starters win at a 13% clip, Yinzer’s upside is significant in this spot. He’s a wildcard but merits inclusion, especially if the tote board indicates live action.

#4 Troubleshooting (4-1)

• Jockey: E. Morales (13%)

• Trainer: Gregory Foley (15%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 12%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 114, Late 47

• Last Beyer: 68

• Field Beyer Average: 63

• Running Style: Speed
  Comment: Troubleshooting has shown early speed in both career starts, including a close second-place finish at Churchill Downs. Blinkers are added today, a sign the connections are looking for him to focus better and sustain his effort late. He’ll need to outlast other pace types, but his tactical advantage and familiarity with the track make him a serious contender for the win

Winner #10 Mo Quality $8.20
Second #7 Sea Vista $1 Exacta $9.48
third #2 Yinzer .50 Trifecta $31.14

Race 8

Post: 4:25 PM ET Dirt

Chilukki S. 1 Mile | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | G3 STAKES | Purse: $300,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11) / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 12-1 Imonra L. Saez 121 Lbs S. Joseph, Jr.

• 2 2 ML 9-2 Pigalle L. Machado 121 Lbs T. Drury, Jr.

• 3 3 ML 4-1 Taxed B. Hernandez, Jr. 121 Lbs R. Morse

• 4 4 ML 2-1 Two Sharp J. Alvarado 118 Lbs P. Bauer

• 5 5 ML 8-1 Royal Spa F. Prat 121 Lbs R. Brisset

• 6 6 ML 10-1 Positano Sunset J. Leparoux 121 Lbs I. Wilkes

• 7 7 ML 6-1 Oeuvre J. Loveberry 121 Lbs C. Block

• 8 8 ML 6-1 Fancy T. Gaffalione 121 Lbs B. Walsh

Selections 4-2-3-7 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#4 Two Sharp (2-1)

• Jockey: Junior Alvarado (15% 2024)

• Trainer: Phil Bauer (22% 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 130, Late 54

• Last Beyer: 96

• Running Style: Speed

Lightly raced but supremely talented filly. Dominant allowance win last out with career-best 96 Beyer. Adds blinkers while showing bullet works. Controlling speed who could prove tough to catch.

#2 Pigalle (9-2)

• Jockey: L. Machado (15%)

• Trainer: Thomas Drury Jr. (12%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 10%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 113, Late 81

• Last Beyer: 85

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Pigalle enters in fine form, having rallied to victory in her two straight before missing by 5 in a grade 2 last out in the Groupie Doll Stakes. Her 85 Beyer matches up well with this field, and she’s proven over a mile, with five wins and a runner-up finish at this distance from 7 starts. The pace scenario sets up well for her stalking style, as she can sit just off the early leaders and make her move on the turn.

#3 Taxed (4-1)

• Jockey: B. Hernandez Jr. (16%)

• Trainer: Randy Morse (15%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 90, Late 93

• Last Beyer: 86

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Closer
  Comment: Taxed brings consistent graded stakes form, with competitive efforts in the Fleur de Lis (G2) and the Locust Grove (G3). She’s a deep closer who will benefit from a solid early pace. With her sharp turn of foot, expect her to come charging late. Her prior win at Churchill over a mile adds confidence, and she’s always a threat when given a fast pace to chase.

#7 Oeuvre (6-1)

• Jockey: J. Loveberry (13%)

• Trainer: Chris Block (25%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 109, Late 68

• Last Beyer: 93

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Tactical Speed
  Comment: A versatile mare with tactical speed, Oeuvre steps into graded company after a strong campaign on the Midwest circuit. Her ability to press or stalk the pace gives her options, and she’s shown resilience at longer distances. While her Churchill form includes a third-place finish in last year’s Chilukki, her improved speed figures this season make her a serious contender.

Winner #4 Two Sharp $3.94

Race 9

Post: 4:55 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $127,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 2 2 ML 20-1 Ajaayb S. Sanjur 120 Lbs J. Esquivel L

• 4 4 ML 10-1 Colorado Cruiser R. Bejarano 118 Lbs D. O'Neill L

• 5 5 ML 10-1 Risk It F. Prat 118 Lbs S. Asmussen L

• 6 6 ML 8-1 Trust Issues J. Alvarado 120 Lbs M. Lovell L

• 7 7 ML 15-1 Rowdy Riot B. Hernandez, Jr. 120 Lbs R. Morse L

• 8 8 ML 15-1 Wind Rider C. Lanerie 118 Lbs G. Arnold II L

• 9 9 ML 7-2 Banned for Life L. Saez 118 Lbs A. Stall, Jr. L

• 10 10 ML 15-1 President Z F. Geroux 120 Lbs R. Dutrow, Jr. L

Selections 9-6 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#9 Banned for Life (7-2)

• Jockey: L. Saez (16%)

• Trainer: Albert Stall Jr. (15%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 112, Late 67

• Last Beyer: 93

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Banned for Life has been improving steadily, finishing second last out in allowance company at Keeneland with a strong Beyer of 93. His ability to press or stalk the pace sets him up well for this sprint, and with Luis Saez aboard, he’s in capable hands. Stall Jr. has a strong track record with horses transitioning to the allowance level. Expect him to sit just off the leaders and make a bold move in the stretch.

#11 Agoo (4-1)

• Jockey: R. Santana Jr. (14%)

• Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman (13%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 10%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 99, Late 59

• Last Beyer: 90

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Speed/Presser
  Comment: Agoo has flashed consistent form, including a strong second-place finish in an allowance race at Keeneland. He’s shown the ability to handle pace pressure and fight back, as demonstrated in his September victory at Churchill Downs. Agoo’s tactical speed makes him dangerous, and if he gets a clean break, he’ll be tough to catch.

#1 Justifreak (10-1)

• Jockey: L. Machado (15%)

• Trainer: Eddie Kenneally (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 116, Late 64

• Last Beyer: 85

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Speed
  Comment: Justifreak is a potential upset candidate, bringing strong early speed to this race. He’s a recent maiden winner over this course and distance, and his early pace figures suggest he can contend for the lead. Kenneally’s 17% strike rate with allowance starters adds to the appeal. He’ll need to avoid a duel up front, but if he gets loose, he could hang on at a price.

#6 Trust Issues (8-1)

• Jockey: J. Alvarado (15%)

• Trainer: Michelle Lovell (10%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 12%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 114, Late 63

• Last Beyer: 84

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Trust Issues broke his maiden impressively at Churchill Downs and steps up confidently into allowance company. His Beyer figures are competitive, and his stalking style should suit the race’s pace dynamic. He’s a rising star to watch and offers value in exotics.

Winner #9 Banned for Life $3.04

Race 10

Post: 5:25 PM ET Turf

Commonwealth Turf S. 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $300,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 6-1 My Boy Prince F. Geroux 118 Lbs M. Casse

• 2 2 ML 30-1 Telescopic L. Machado 118 Lbs V. Oliver

• 3 3 ML 5-2 Dashman L. Saez 118 Lbs B. Lynch

• 4 4 ML 10-1 Ak Sar Ben Derby J. Alvarado 120 Lbs J. Ortiz

• 5 5 ML 20-1 Piper's Factor B. Hernandez, Jr. 120 Lbs K. Vassilieva

• 6 6 ML 30-1 Will Take It C. Torres 118 Lbs E. Milligan, Jr.

• 7 7 ML 4-1 Lagynos F. Prat 118 Lbs S. Asmussen

• 8 8 ML 3-1 Herchee E. Morales 118 Lbs H. Pitts

• 9 9 ML 7-2 Evade (FR) T. Gaffalione 118 Lbs M. Maker

Selections 8-9-3-1 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#8 Herchee (3-1)

• Jockey: E. Morales (13%)

• Trainer: Helen Pitts (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 110, Late 78

• Last Beyer: 89

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Tactical Speed
  Comment: Herchee has been consistent in graded stakes company, finishing a strong third in the Bryan Station (G3) at Keeneland last time out. His tactical speed allows him to sit close to the pace, and he’s already a winner at Churchill. By Twirling Candy, he’s bred to excel on turf at this distance. With improving Beyer figures and solid connections, Herchee is a top contender.

#9 Evade (7-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22%)

• Trainer: Michael Maker (15%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 103, Late 97

• Last Beyer: 92

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Evade has shown versatility and class since arriving in the U.S., highlighted by a fourth-place finish in the Bryan Station (G3) at Keeneland. His late kick is a weapon, and Maker excels with these types of turf runners. Gaffalione is an expert at timing late runs, making Evade a legitimate threat in this spot.

#3 Dashman (5-2)

• Jockey: L. Saez (16%)

• Trainer: Brian Lynch (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 64, Late 91

• Last Beyer: 89

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Mid-pack closer
  Comment: Dashman has been a rising star on the turf, winning two of his last three starts, including an allowance at Kentucky Downs. His ability to settle and finish strong makes him dangerous in a race likely to feature an honest pace. Lynch’s runners have been live at this meet, and Saez’s aggressive style suits this colt perfectly.

#1 My Boy Prince (6-1)

• Jockey: F. Geroux (16%)

• Trainer: Mark Casse (18%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 113, Late 84

• Last Beyer: 97

• Field Beyer Average: 86

• Running Style: Speed
  Comment: My Boy Prince is a proven front-runner, capable of setting a strong pace and carrying his speed. His best performances have come on synthetic, but he has shown he can handle turf, finishing second in the King’s Plate on the Woodbine turf course. Geroux should have him involved early, and if he’s left alone on the lead, he could wire this field.

Race 11

Post: 5:55 PM ET Dirt

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

• # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 20-1 Ceebee E. Morales 119 Lbs G. Arnold II

• 2 2 ML 20-1 Lobby Rendezvous C. Torres 119 Lbs M. Shirer

• 3 3 ML 2-1 Girl Math F. Prat 119 Lbs R. Brisset

• 4 4 ML 3-1 Seraphia T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs S. Asmussen

• 5 5 ML 4-1 Calamity L. Saez 119 Lbs B. Cox

• 6 6 ML 12-1 Madeline's Promise C. Lanerie 119 Lbs D. Romans

• 7 7 ML 7-2 Golden Gamble B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

• 8 8 ML 10-1 Bottomless Mimosa J. Leparoux 119 Lbs K. McPeek

• 9 9 ML 20-1 Heart's Compass L. Machado 119 Lbs E. Kenneally

Selections 3-4-7-5 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#3 Girl Math (2-1)

• Jockey: F. Prat (22%)

• Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset (27%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 36%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 103, Late 77

• Last Beyer: 73

• Field Beyer Average: 62

• Running Style: Stalker
  Comment: Girl Math has been knocking on the door with two runner-up finishes in three career starts. Her last effort over this track and distance was a game second, earning a strong 73 Beyer, and she’s facing a similar field today. Prat stays aboard, and the Brisset barn has been red-hot with juveniles this season. With a favorable stalking style, she’s poised to break through.

#4 Seraphia (3-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22%)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (17%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 20%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 82, Late 51

• Last Beyer: 52

• Field Beyer Average: 62

• Running Style: Presser
  Comment: Seraphia ran a promising third on debut at Keeneland, closing well after sitting mid-pack. The $1 million purchase by Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare has the pedigree to improve significantly with experience and the added distance today. Asmussen excels with second-time starters, and Gaffalione is a strong fit for her running style. She’s a major threat with added ground.

#7 Golden Gamble (7-2)

• Jockey: B. Hernandez Jr. (16%)

• Trainer: Kenneth McPeek (14%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 15%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 79, Late 88

• Last Beyer: 68

• Field Beyer Average: 62

• Running Style: Closer
  Comment: Golden Gamble was a solid third last out over this track and distance, showing improvement with every start. Her late pace figures suggest she’ll benefit from a hot pace up front, and she’s bred to excel at this distance. While McPeek’s barn has been slightly below its usual success rate, this filly has the tools to contend at a fair price.

#5 Calamity (4-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (16%)

• Trainer: Brad Cox (27%)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 30%

• TimeformUS Pace: N/A (Debut)

• Last Beyer: N/A (First-Time Starter)

• Field Beyer Average: 62

• Running Style: Unknown
  Comment: Calamity debuts for powerhouse connections with Cox and Saez, a combination striking at a 30% clip at Churchill. This Gun Runner filly has a sharp work tab, including a bullet drill on October 26, suggesting she’s ready to fire. Her pedigree is elite for this distance, and she’s a live player if ready.

Winner #7 Golden Gamble $7.10
Second #3 Girl math $1 exacta $8.01
Third #4 Seraphia .50 Trifecta $21.16
fourth #5 Calamity .10 Super $13.31