Churchill Results Opening Day

Cashed on 8 of the 11 race with some nice exacta hits

Author

Battaglia's Picks
October 29, 2024

2024 Breeders Cup Picks

Don’t Miss Out on This Year’s Winning Breeders Cup Picks – Secure Your Edge Now!

battaglias-newsletter.beehiiv.com/p/2024-breeders-cup-picks

The Underdog Newsletter

The best sports stories you've never heard & powerful lessons from underdogs beating the odds.

newsletter.jokermag.com/subscribe?_bhba=f872fa25-aaff-4d5b-b5f5-cdf1d8eedcf3

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Churchill Downs

Battaglia’s Picks recommends playing Exacta Boxes:

  • Surefire Selections (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐): Prime picks with the highest confidence level. Place your bets with utmost assurance.

  • Stellar Selections (⭐⭐⭐⭐): Strong contenders with solid prospects. A very favorable betting choice.

  • Notable Nominations (⭐⭐⭐): Worthy of attention, these picks hold intriguing potential.

  • Moderate Mentions (⭐⭐): Proceed with caution. These horses present some possibilities, but also notable risks.

  • Consider Skipping (⭐): Best to observe. The risks likely outweigh the potential rewards in these races.

1st 1-5-4-8 ⭐⭐⭐

7th 1-9-7-2 ⭐⭐⭐

2nd 5-3-7-9 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

8th 10-2-7-11 ⭐⭐⭐

3rd 9-4-7-1 ⭐⭐⭐

9th 6-2-3-4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

4th 9-6-(15)1-2⭐⭐⭐

10th 8-5-10-4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

5th 1-2-4-6 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

11th 1-3-5-10 ⭐⭐

6th 12-2-10-5 ⭐⭐

 

 

Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET Dirt

1 Mile | Auction | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $92,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (Races 1-5) / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 2-1 Flash Wear C. Torres 119 Lbs T. Vance

  • 2 2 ML 10-1 Carolina Smokeshow F. Geroux 119 Lbs D. Beckman

  • 3 3 ML 10-1 Multiplication R. Gutierrez 119 Lbs W. Calhoun

  • 4 4 ML 5-1 Queen in the Deck G. Ashton 119 Lbs C. Munoz

  • 5 5 ML 5-2 Ez Tree Ates T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs N. Casse

  • 6 6 ML 15-1 Vino Toxica J. Meza 119 Lbs C. Galindo-Torres

  • 7 7 ML 10-1 Split Success J. Torres 119 Lbs J. Sharp

  • 8 8 ML 10-1 Parking Lot Pours D. Cannon 119 Lbs M. Tomlinson

  • 9 9 ML 12-1 C. C. Foxii R. Vazquez 119 Lbs G. Compton

Selections 1-5-4-8 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#1 Flash Wear (2-1)

  • Jockey: C.A. Torres (805 126 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 12%

  • Trainer: T.D. Vance (93 10 .11)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 104, Late 38

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 66

    Comment: Flash Wear comes off a strong second-place finish at this level, showing tactical speed with a solid Early Pace figure. She chased a quick pace last out and stayed on gamely, indicating she should be able to handle the mile distance. Her consistent work pattern suggests readiness, and Torres retains the mount, providing continuity.

#5 Ez Tree Ates (5-2)

  • Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 11%

  • Trainer: Norm W. Casse (168 24 .14)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 77, Late 56

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 49

    Comment: Ez Tree Ates showed promise on debut, closing well after a slow start. Her trainer’s 20% win rate with second-time starters adds confidence here, and her workouts show steady improvement. Gaffalione, a top jockey with a strong dirt record, is a plus. Look for her to settle off the pace and make a run late.

#4 Queen in the Deck (5-1)

  • Jockey: G. Ashton (337 31 .09)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 17%

  • Trainer: C. Munoz (149 9 .06)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 69, Late 75

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 57

    Comment: Queen in the Deck has shown consistency in turf routes, finishing in the money twice. Her switch to dirt could be key here, and she has a high Late Pace figure, suggesting she’ll be closing well. Ashton has been gaining momentum with his mounts recently, making her an interesting contender at reasonable odds.

#8 Parking Lot Pours (10-1)

  • Jockey: D. Cannon (364 34 .09)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 0%

  • Trainer: M.A. Tomlinson (112 10 .09)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 65, Late 45

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 45

    Comment: Parking Lot Pours had a rough trip on debut, making a late bid to grab third on a sloppy track. Her breeding suggests improvement on a dry surface, and her recent workouts indicate sharpness. Cannon stays aboard, which should help with familiarity. She’s an intriguing longshot, with potential value in this field.

Winner #1 Flash Wear $5.48

Race 2

Post: 1:29 PM ET Dirt

1 Mile | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Purse: $72,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 30-1 Bisa E. Morales 120 Lbs E. Caramori

  • 2 2 ML 15-1 Benevolence F. Geroux 120 Lbs R. Brisset

  • 3 3 ML 3-1 Broadway Lights L. Saez 120 Lbs B. Cox

  • 4 4 ML 12-1 Rosato I. Moncada 113 Lbs J. Ennis

  • 5 5 ML 2-1 Book'em B. Hernandez, Jr. 120 Lbs W. Calhoun

  • 6 6 ML 20-1 Rocio G. Ashton 120 Lbs C. Munoz

  • 7 7 ML 5-1 Kentucky Smokeshow R. Bejarano 120 Lbs C. Hartman

  • 8 8 ML 4-1 Equal Success T. Gaffalione 120 Lbs J. Sharp

  • 9 9 ML 7-2 Mascara G. Corrales 120 Lbs W. Ward

Selections 5-3-7-9 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#5 Book'em (2-1)

  • Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (616 99 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 33%

  • Trainer: W. Bret Calhoun (482 101 .21)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 108, Late 47

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 76

    Comment: Book'em comes off an impressive maiden win, leading from start to finish with an Early Pace figure that outclasses this field. Hernandez’s aggressive riding style pairs well with her speed, making her a formidable contender here. With her continued training consistency, she should be ready to dictate the pace once again and is in prime form to handle the mile.

#3 Broadway Lights (3-1)

  • Jockey: L. Saez (1173 173 .15)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 30%

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 74, Late 68

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 73

    Comment: Broadway Lights recently broke her maiden with a decisive performance, rating just off the pace and showing a strong finishing kick. Saez’s partnership with Cox has been highly successful, and this filly's tactical versatility allows her to adjust to different paces. Her stamina over a mile should keep her in the mix for the win, especially if the pace gets too hot.

#7 Kentucky Smokeshow (5-1)

  • Jockey: R. Bejarano (581 82 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: C. Hartman (335 55 .16)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 114, Late 30

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 72

    Comment: Kentucky Smokeshow’s debut win was a display of speed, making a strong bid and maintaining the lead to the finish. With a high Early Pace figure, she’s likely to be forwardly placed early and attempt to pounce late.

#9 Mascara (7-2)

  • Jockey: G. Corrales (417 70 .17)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 25%

  • Trainer: W. A. Ward (295 76 .26)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 103, Late 22

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 54

    Comment: Mascara debuted impressively on a sloppy track, staying close to the pace before drawing off comfortably. With Corrales aboard and Ward's solid record with young horses, Mascara could improve further here. Her pace numbers indicate that she can stay close early, and if she’s able to handle the added distance, she could be a strong contender.

Winner #5 Book’em $3.82
Second #3 Broadway Lights $1 Exacta $7.45

Race 3

Post: 1:58 PM ET Dirt

1 Mile | Auction | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $92,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 6-1 Brotha Keny G. Corrales 119 Lbs W. Morey

  • 2 2 ML 30-1 Bourbonator J. Loveberry 119 Lbs J. Desormeaux

  • 3 3 ML 15-1 La Houligan R. Vazquez 119 Lbs G. Compton

  • 4 4 ML 4-1 Coalmoon B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs P. Lobo

  • 5 5 ML 15-1 Reb A. Concepcion 119 Lbs K. Fletcher

  • 6 6 ML 20-1 Frosty Beer E. Roman 119 Lbs P. Matejka

  • 7 7 ML 9-2 Landing Craft F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox

  • 8 8 ML 8-1 Cutlass King R. Bowen 119 Lbs A. Hernandez

  • 9 9 ML 5-2 Moral L. Saez 119 Lbs T. Drury, Jr.

  • 10 10 ML 8-1 Market Watch T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs M. Maker

  • 11 11 ML 12-1 Steelin Bases R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs M. Casse

Selections 9-4-7-1 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#9 Moral (5-2)

  • Jockey: L. Saez (1173 173 .15)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 40%

  • Trainer: T. Drury Jr. (179 32 .18)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 94, Late 43

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 56

    Comment: Moral ran impressively on debut, finishing a close second after a strong late rally, indicating potential over a mile. With his high Early Pace, he can secure a good position, and his connections show a high win percentage. Expect him to be sharper with added experience, making him the one to beat.

#4 Coalmoon (4-1)

  • Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (616 99 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: P.H. Lobo (239 40 .17)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 54, Late 93

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 65

    Comment: Coalmoon showed promise on turf but has not yet raced on dirt. His late-running style, coupled with a high Late Pace figure, suggests he’ll be strong in the stretch. Hernandez’s solid rapport with Lobo adds confidence, and his recent works hint at readiness. If he handles the surface switch, he could be a serious player here.

#7 Landing Craft (9-2)

  • Jockey: F. Geroux (512 97 .19)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 27%

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 76, Late 44

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 40

    Comment: Landing Craft had a troubled debut but showed some potential. The Brad Cox/Flo Geroux team is well-regarded, particularly with 2-year-olds making their second start. Look for improvement with experience and a longer distance, especially if he can secure a better trip early.

#1 Brotha Keny (6-1)

  • Jockey: G. Corrales (417 70 .17)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 14%

  • Trainer: W.E. Morey (261 55 .21)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 61, Late 59

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 48

    Comment: Brotha Keny closed well in his debut, indicating stamina that could benefit him over this distance. With solid workouts since, he looks prepared to improve in his second start. Corrales has experience with late runners, and if the pace is hot, Brotha Keny could surprise at decent odds.

Winner #9 Moral $5.16
Second #4 Coalmoon $1 Exacta $13.69

Race 4

Post: 2:28 PM ET Turf

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 5 (Races 4-8) / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 4-1 Sergeant Capps R. Bejarano 119 Lbs S. Capps

  • 2 2 ML 10-1 Date the Prince F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox

  • 3 3 ML 15-1 High Ceiling C. Torres 119 Lbs J. Sharp

  • 4 4 ML 10-1 Tequila n' Salt B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

  • 5 5 ML 20-1 High Limit K. Asmussen 119 Lbs D. Lukas

  • 6 6 ML 2-1 Flying Mohawk T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs D. Beckman

  • 7 7 ML 20-1 Stonington F. Jara 119 Lbs L. Schultz

  • 8 8 ML 10-1 Swirling Eights L. Saez 119 Lbs M. Maker

  • 9 9 ML 9-2 Dream Scheme D. Cannon 119 Lbs B. Walsh

  • 10 10 ML 10-1 Dr. Niko J. Torres 119 Lbs P. Bauer

  • 11 11 ML 30-1 Pnutbutter Whiskey I. Moncada 112 Lbs J. Kelley

  • 12 12 ML 30-1 Sand Cast E. Morales 119 Lbs L. Demeritte

  • 13 A ML 12-1 Deputy A. P. B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs C. DeVaux

  • 14 A ML 6-1 Anegada E. Morales 119 Lbs J. Ennis

  • 15 A ML 7-2 War and Majesty C. Lanerie 119 Lbs D. Romans

  • 16 A ML 6-1 Culture War T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs R. Medina

Selections 9-6-(15)-1-2Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#9 Dream Scheme (9-2)

  • Jockey: D. Cannon (364 34 .09 in 2024)

  • Trainer: B. Walsh (550 81 .15 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 51 Late 93

  • Last Beyer: 67

Comment: Made up significant ground to finish fourth last time at Keeneland, indicating he's figuring things out. The high late pace figure suggests he'll appreciate the added distance today. Walsh excels with developing 2-year-olds and this well-bred son of Quality Road ($300K yearling) appears ready to break through. The strong works at Keeneland also signal readiness.

#6 Flying Mohawk (2-1)

  • Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17 in 2024)

  • Trainer: D. Beckman (115 13 .11 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 92 Late 70

  • Last Beyer: 66
    Comment: Set the pace in Grade 2 Pilgrim before tiring late. Prior to that ran a strong second to winner Warlander. The balanced pace figures suggest versatility and the cutback in distance should help. Gets top rider Gaffalione and recent :48.4 work shows maintains form.

#15 War and Majesty (7-2)

  • Jockey: C.J. Lanerie (496 67 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: D. Romans (213 26 .12)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 97, Late 72

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 69

    Comment: War and Majesty ran well in his last start at Keeneland, finishing a competitive third after a mid-race check. His strong Late Pace rating indicates he can make a powerful closing move, and with Lanerie aboard, he could find a favorable position to capitalize in the stretch.

#1 Sergeant Capps (4-1)

  • Jockey: R. Bejarano (581 82 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 0%

  • Trainer: S.A. Capps (18 0 .00)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 98, Late 66

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 69

    Comment: Sergeant Capps has shown consistent turf form, with multiple in-the-money finishes, including a close fourth at Keeneland last time. His high Early Pace figure suggests he’ll be forwardly placed, and the addition of blinkers could sharpen his focus. With his tactical speed, he’s a reliable contender here.

#2 Date the Prince (10-1)

  • Jockey: F. Geroux (512 97 .19)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 27%

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 33, Late 90

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 58

    Comment: Date the Prince showed promise on debut, finishing third after overcoming a slow start. With an inside post, he could settle into a better position early, and with Cox’s high win percentage in second starts, he’s a strong value play with room for improvement.

 

Race 5

Post: 2:57 PM ET Dirt

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8) / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 8-5 Girl Math T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs R. Brisset

  • 2 2 ML 5-1 Lady Liberty B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs C. DeVaux

  • 3 3 ML 8-1 Faith J. Alvarado 119 Lbs W. Mott

  • 4 4 ML 5-1 California Sunset F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox

  • 5 5 ML 12-1 McKinzie's Glory C. Hernandez 119 Lbs K. McPeek

  • 6 6 ML 3-1 Going Steady L. Saez 119 Lbs D. Lukas

  • 7 7 ML 15-1 Queen Jubilee G. Corrales 119 Lbs D. Beckman

  • 8 8 ML 30-1 Liberation Day A. Concepcion 119 Lbs V. Oliver

  • 9 9 ML 15-1 Golden Gamble J. Leparoux 119 Lbs K. McPeek

Selections 1-2-4-6 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#1 Girl Math (8-5)

  • Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17 in 2024)

  • Trainer: R. Brisset (197 36 .18 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 102 Late 89

  • Last Beyer: 73

Comment: Shows the best recent form with a strong second last out earning a field-best 73 Beyer. The well-balanced pace figures suggest she can adapt to any pace scenario. $300K purchase has trained well for this and gets top rider Gaffalione. Brisset excels with second-time routers and the natural progression makes her the one to beat.

#2 Lady Liberty (5-1)

  • Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (616 99 .16 in 2024)

  • Trainer: C. DeVaux (339 50 .15 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 74 Late 61

  • Last Beyer: 57

Comment: Made a big late run to be third in sprint debut after a troubled start. The $625K Constitution filly should appreciate stretching out based on pedigree. DeVaux strong with second-time starters (16%) and the string of solid works at Keeneland indicates readiness.

#4 California Sunset (5-1)

  • Jockey: F. Geroux (512 97 .19 in 2024)

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 85 Late 92

  • Last Beyer: 53

Comment: Showed improvement late in route debut and now adds blinkers for top trainer Cox who hits at 28% with that angle. The high late pace figure suggests more distance will help and recent :48.1 work shows sharpness. Cox excels with second-time starters (28%).

#6 Going Steady (3-1)

  • Jockey: L. Saez (1173 173 .15 in 2024)

  • Trainer: D.W. Lukas (221 21 .10 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 110 Late 39

  • Last Beyer: 68
    Comment: Has shown talent in sprints including a strong second last time. High early pace figure suggests she'll be prominent from the start. Gets top rider Saez and recent bullet :47.1 work signals readiness. Could be dangerous if able to carry her speed.

Winner #4 California Sunset $31.10
Second #1 Girl Math $1 Exacta $42.18

Race 6

Post: 3:26 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.20 Derby City-6 / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 20-1 Loulou B J. Torres 119 Lbs T. Green

  • 2 2 ML 7-2 Murphy Girl C. Lanerie 119 Lbs D. Romans

  • 3 3 ML 8-1 Northern Voyage R. Bejarano 119 Lbs P. Eurton

  • 4 4 ML 10-1 Sweet Note T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs B. Walsh

  • 5 5 ML 6-1 Banking Silver J. Alvarado 119 Lbs D. Stewart

  • 6 6 ML 15-1 Bottomless Mimosa B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

  • 7 7 ML 5-1 Purple and Gold L. Saez 119 Lbs B. Cox

  • 8 8 ML 15-1 Basilea R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs M. Casse

  • 9 9 ML 30-1 Trading Secrets K. Asmussen 119 Lbs D. Lukas

  • 10 10 ML 5-1 First Class Lady C. Torres 119 Lbs S. Asmussen

  • 11 11 ML 30-1 Costa Amalfitana G. Ashton 119 Lbs C. Munoz

  • 12 12 ML 9-2 Spring Dancer M. Garcia 119 Lbs R. Morse

  • 13 A ML 12-1 Justtakethecannoli E. Morales 119 Lbs P. McGee

  • 14 A ML 5-1 Everloving T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs T. Amoss

Selections 12-2-10-5 Rating ⭐⭐

#12 Spring Dancer (9-2)

  • Jockey: M. Garcia (217 26 .12)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 13%

  • Trainer: R. Morse (150 23 .15)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 108, Late 41

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 64
    Comment: Spring Dancer ran a solid race on debut, finishing a close third after pressing the pace. With a high Early Pace figure, she has the speed to be forwardly placed again. Her sharp recent workouts suggest she’s primed to perform well, making her a strong contender.

#2 Murphy Girl (7-2)

  • Jockey: C.J. Lanerie (496 67 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: D. Romans (213 26 .12)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 89, Late 55

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 72
    Comment: Murphy Girl has shown improvement in each start, with her last outing being a competitive third. Lanerie’s takes the mount indicates confidence, and with tactical speed and consistency, she’s well-positioned for a strong showing.

#10 First Class Lady (5-1)

  • Jockey: C.A. Torres (805 126 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 18%

  • Trainer: S. Asmussen (1929 334 .17)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 102, Late 39

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 66
    Comment: First Class Lady showed promise in her debut with a second-place finish before a troubled trip last out. Her high Early Pace suggests she’ll be in the mix from the start. Asmussen’s success with young horses adds confidence that she can rebound and contend here.

#5 Banking Silver (6-1)

  • Jockey: J. Alvarado (593 85 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 15%

  • Trainer: D. Stewart (190 24 .13)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 74, Late 72

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 57
    Comment: Banking Silver rallied well for second in her last start, indicating she has a solid closing kick. With Alvarado aboard and Stewart’s knack for success with young fillies, she has a good chance to improve and make an impact, especially if the pace is strong upfront.

 

Race 7

Post: 3:55 PM ET Dirt

6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Pick 5 (7-11) / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 3-1 I Got Game J. Torres 119 Lbs T. Amoss

  • 2 2 ML 6-1 Lil Muggs T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs G. Foley

  • 3 3 ML 12-1 Jac Fourteen J. Alvarado 119 Lbs W. Mott

  • 4 4 ML 10-1 Captain Cook R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs N. Casse

  • 5 5 ML 30-1 Captains Choice A. Beschizza 119 Lbs M. Simms, Jr.

  • 6 6 ML 20-1 Serendibite C. Lanerie 119 Lbs E. Reed

  • 7 7 ML 9-2 Zat's the One M. Garcia 119 Lbs P. D'Amato

  • 8 8 ML 12-1 Dreaminblue R. Bejarano 119 Lbs R. Morse

  • 9 9 ML 4-1 Confront F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox

  • 10 10 ML 12-1 Calling On Heaven L. Saez 119 Lbs C. DeVaux

  • 11 11 ML 10-1 Pride's Prince K. Asmussen 119 Lbs S. Asmussen

  • 12 12 ML 15-1 Restless Renegade B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

  • 13 A ML 12-1 Poppa Echo C. Torres 119 Lbs E. Milligan, Jr.

  • 14 A ML 7-2 Kalahari Dreams A. Concepcion 119 Lbs P. Bauer

  • 15 A ML 8-1 Can't Deny It J. Loveberry 119 Lbs L. Rivelli

  • 16 A ML 15-1 Galantini I. Moncada 112 Lbs B. Lynch

Selections 1-9-7-2 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#1 I Got Game (3-1)

  • Jockey: J. Torres (647 81 .13 in 2024)

  • Trainer: T. Amoss (337 64 .19 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 82 Late 68

  • Last Beyer: 72

Comment: Shows the most consistent form with a strong second in last last out in a game effort when just missing after battling throughout. The balanced pace figures suggest tactical versatility and Amoss excellent with experienced maidens. Recent bullet 5f work in :59.3 signals readiness.

#9 Confront (4-1)

  • Jockey: F. Geroux (512 97 .19 in 2024)

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27 in 2024)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early N/A Late N/A

  • Debut runner

Comment: $220K Constitution colt from the powerful Cox barn that wins at 25% with first-time starters. Shows strong series of works including a bullet :46.3 drill. Gets top rider Geroux and the spacing of works suggests he's ready to fire first out.

#7 Zat’s the One (9-2)

  • Jockey: M. Garcia (217 26 .12)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 22%

  • Trainer: P. D’Amato (571 95 .17)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 92, Late 46

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 60

    Comment: Zat’s the One debuted with a solid fourth, showing potential with a sharp early pace before fading late. His recent workouts are encouraging, and the added experience should allow him to improve his finishing kick, making him a prime contender here.

#2 Lil Muggs (6-1)

· Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17 in 2024)

· Trainer: G. Foley (204 30 .15 in 2024)

· TimeformUS Pace: Early 105 Late 42

· Last Beyer: 65

 Comment: Ran well when second in slop last time showing good tactical speed. Gets leading rider Gaffalione for second start and Foley strong with this move (19% wins). The high early pace figure suggests he'll be prominent from the start.

Winner #2 Lil Muggs $13.40
Second #7 Zat’s the One $1 Exacta $53.07

Race 8

Post: 4:25 PM ET Turf

1 Mile | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11) / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 15-1 Wayzata R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs D. Stewart

  • 2 2 ML 4-1 Fortunate T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs B. Walsh

  • 3 3 ML 15-1 Dreaming of Lilies J. Torres 119 Lbs J. Sharp

  • 4 4 ML 20-1 Good Reason A. Concepcion 119 Lbs V. Oliver

  • 5 5 ML 10-1 Avery's Dream J. Alvarado 119 Lbs R. Mott

  • 6 6 ML 12-1 Nile Valley R. Bejarano 119 Lbs C. Hartman

  • 7 7 ML 6-1 Lotus Petal A. Beschizza 119 Lbs J. Antonucci

  • 8 8 ML 10-1 Bella Alessia R. Vazquez 119 Lbs J. Ortiz

  • 9 9 ML 20-1 Tavria C. Landeros 119 Lbs I. Wilkes

  • 10 10 ML 3-1 Poema B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs P. Lobo

  • 11 11 ML 8-1 Jeweled City F. Jara 119 Lbs A. Stall, Jr.

  • 12 12 ML 6-1 One Happy Island C. Lanerie 119 Lbs M. Kordenbrock

  • 13 A ML 12-1 Frosted Kisses E. Morales 119 Lbs T. Amoss

  • 14 A ML 8-1 Jewish Mother J. Leparoux 119 Lbs S. Hobby

  • 15 A ML 15-1 Are You a Spy A. Jimenez 119 Lbs F. Bogle

  • 16 A ML 12-1 Princess Em Too M. Garcia 119 Lbs P. D'Amato

Selections 10-2-7-11 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#10 Poema (3-1)

  • Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (616 99 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 22%

  • Trainer: P. H. Lobo (239 40 .17)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 66, Late 87

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 62
    Comment: Poema has finished second in both starts on turf, showing impressive late runs each time. Hernandez is back aboard, and her solid Late Pace figure suggests she can make a strong stretch bid in this one-mile test. She has the experience edge and figures to be the one to beat.

#2 Fortunate (4-1)

  • Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 19%

  • Trainer: B. P. Walsh (550 81 .15)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 70, Late 55
    Comment: Fortunate makes her debut here on turf, and her pedigree by War Front suggests she’ll handle the surface well. Gaffalione is a top jockey, and Walsh’s success with first-time starters on turf adds confidence. Expect her to be well-prepared and competitive.

#7 Lotus Petal (6-1)

  • Jockey: A. Beschizza (378 44 .12)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 0%

  • Trainer: J.M. Antonucci (171 17 .10)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 62, Late 93

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 55
    Comment: Lotus Petal ran well at longer distances on turf, finishing third and sixth in her last two starts. With a high Late Pace figure, she should be closing strongly in the stretch, and the drop back to a mile may suit her better here.

#11 Jeweled City (8-1)

  • Jockey: F. Jara (382 59 .15)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 12%

  • Trainer: A. Stall Jr. (173 26 .15)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 94, Late 66

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 55
    Comment: Jeweled City was favored in her last start but had a tough trip. Her early speed could allow her to secure a good position, and her previous close finishes suggest she’s capable of bouncing back here with a cleaner run.

Winner #10 Poema $5.44

Race 9

Post: 4:55 PM ET Dirt

Rags to Riches S. 1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | G STAKES | Purse: $200,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 15-1 My Lil Punky J. Alvarado 122 Lbs J. Ennis

  • 2 2 ML 5-2 Claire's Charm T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs P. Bauer

  • 3 3 ML 6-1 Sherbini F. Geroux 122 Lbs M. Casse

  • 4 4 ML 10-1 Alyeska R. Santana, Jr. 122 Lbs N. Casse

  • 5 5 ML 8-1 Mechaya C. Torres 122 Lbs J. DiVito

  • 6 6 ML 6-5 Good Cheer L. Saez 122 Lbs B. Cox

  • 7 7 ML 15-1 Adeera E. Asmussen 122 Lbs S. Asmussen

  • 8 8 ML 10-1 Lady Orient E. Morales 122 Lbs T. Amoss

Selections 6-2-3-4 Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

#6 Good Cheer (6-5)

  • Jockey: L. Saez (1173 173 .15)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 35%

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 68, Late 106

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 85
    Comment: Good Cheer is undefeated in two starts, including an impressive win over this distance on a sloppy track by 17 lengths. Her high Late Pace figure indicates a powerful finishing ability, and her strong Beyer figure confirms her class. She’s the one to beat here for Cox and Saez.

#2 Claire’s Charm (5-2)

  • Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 22%

  • Trainer: P.A. Bauer (104 24 .23)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 76

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 76
    Comment: Claire’s Charm broke her maiden impressively over this track, stalking the pace and drawing away late. Gaffalione’s return aboard is a plus, and her tactical speed should allow her to sit close and pounce. She looks primed to challenge the favorite with her consistency.

#3 Sherbini (6-1)

  • Jockey: F. Geroux (512 97 .19)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 23%

  • Trainer: M. Casse (1068 195 .18)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 94, Late 78

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 72
    Comment: Sherbini has been competitive in graded stakes, including a third-place finish in the Spinaway. She’ll appreciate the cutback in competition, and her ability to finish strongly adds to her appeal. Geroux’s experience with Casse gives her a solid shot to be in the mix.

#4 Alyeska (10-1)

  • Jockey: R. Santana Jr. (548 80 .15)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: N.W. Casse (168 24 .14)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 62, Late 72

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 64
    Comment: Alyeska impressed on debut with a closing rally to win over this track, showing potential for more at longer distances. Santana’s patient style could benefit her if the pace heats up. She’s an interesting longshot who could surprise with continued improvement.

Winner #6 Good Cheer $3.48
Second #2 Claire’s Charm $1 Exacta $3.31
Third #7 Adeera .50 Trifecta $3.11

Race 10

Post: 5:25 PM ET Dirt

Street Sense S. 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $200,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 15-1 Big Much F. Geroux 122 Lbs N. Casse

  • 2 2 ML 15-1 Bracket Buster A. Concepcion 122 Lbs V. Oliver

  • 3 3 ML 15-1 Baby Boat G. Corrales 122 Lbs J. DiVito

  • 4 4 ML 9-2 Sandman B. Hernandez, Jr. 122 Lbs M. Casse

  • 5 5 ML 3-1 Tiztastic C. Torres 122 Lbs S. Asmussen

  • 6 6 ML 20-1 Reach for the Rose J. Torres 122 Lbs S. Joseph, Jr.

  • 7 7 ML 6-1 Dapper Moon R. Santana, Jr. 122 Lbs D. Stewart

  • 8 8 ML 7-2 Comes a Time L. Saez 122 Lbs B. Cox

  • 9 9 ML 8-1 Forged Steel T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs S. Joseph, Jr.

  • 10 10 ML 5-1 Sovereignty J. Alvarado 122 Lbs W. Mott

Selections 8-5-10-4 Rating ⭐⭐⭐

#8 Comes a Time (7-2)

  • Jockey: L. Saez (1173 173 .15)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 35%

  • Trainer: B. Cox (725 194 .27)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 109, Late 47

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 82
    Comment: Comes a Time debuted with a strong win, showing tactical speed and resilience to get up late. Cox’s high success rate with second-time starters adds confidence, and Saez returns to guide him. With a solid Beyer and a proven ability to handle pressure, he’s a serious contender.

#5 Tiztastic (3-1)

  • Jockey: C.A. Torres (805 126 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 18%

  • Trainer: S. Asmussen (1929 334 .17)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 85, Late 78

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 77
    Comment: Tiztastic has been impressive on turf, winning twice, including a stakes race at Kentucky Downs. Although this is his dirt debut, his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it well. Torres’s presence adds confidence, and Asmussen’s strong record with surface switches gives him an edge.

#10 Sovereignty (5-1)

  • Jockey: J. Alvarado (593 85 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: W. Mott (507 79 .16)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 88, Late 89

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 89
    Comment: Sovereignty has shown steady improvement, finishing a close second in his last start at Belmont. His Late Pace figure suggests he’ll be closing well, and Mott’s expertise with young route horses adds appeal. He’s well-positioned to improve further in his first stakes attempt.

#4 Sandman (9-2)

  • Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (616 99 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 14%

  • Trainer: M. Casse (1068 195 .18)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 99, Late 77

  • Beyer Speed Figure: 81
    Comment: Sandman broke his maiden at Saratoga and ran a decent fifth in the Iroquois Stakes. He has experience at this distance and should appreciate the return to a slightly easier spot. Hernandez’s tactical skills will be helpful in navigating a competitive field.

Winner #10 Sovereignty $4.86
second #5 Tiztastic $1 Exacta $18.58
Third #4 Sandman .50 Trifecta $42.87

Race 11

Post: 5:55 PM ET Dirt

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

  • # PP ODDS Horse Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

  • 1 1 ML 7-2 Bisou E. Asmussen 114 Lbs S. Asmussen

  • 2 2 ML 20-1 Abbi Fede J. Alvarado 119 Lbs J. Ennis

  • 3 3 ML 4-1 Limited Edition T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs B. Walsh

  • 4 4 ML 8-1 Hired Gun R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs B. Cox

  • 5 5 ML 5-1 Render Judgment B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek

  • 6 6 ML 20-1 Mogordy A. Beschizza 119 Lbs J. Hiles

  • 7 7 ML 30-1 Street Mo J. Loveberry 119 Lbs J. Desormeaux

  • 8 8 ML 20-1 Seattle Road E. Morales 119 Lbs T. Amoss

  • 9 9 ML 8-1 American Promise L. Saez 119 Lbs D. Lukas

  • 10 10 ML 6-1 Shogun C. Lanerie 119 Lbs D. Romans

  • 11 11 ML 10-1 Last Chance Luis E. Esquivel 119 Lbs W. Cowans

  • 12 12 ML 8-1 Buzz Rocket F. Geroux 119 Lbs W. Mott

  • 13 A ML 8-1 Tremendously L. Saez 119 Lbs B. Lynch

Selections 1-3-5-10 Rating ⭐⭐

#1 Bisou (7-2)

  • Jockey: E. Asmussen (683 109 .16)

  • Trainer: S. Asmussen (1929 334 .17)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early NA, Late NA
    Comment: A son of Curlin, Bisou debuts here with a solid work pattern. Asmussen’s strong record with first-time starters, especially at longer distances, makes this colt a contender. He’s bred for both stamina and class, suggesting he’ll handle the mile and a sixteenth well.

#3 Limited Edition (4-1)

  • Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1258 210 .17)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 19%

  • Trainer: B. Walsh (550 81 .15)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 77, Late 94
    Comment: Limited Edition showed promise on debut, finishing strongly to take second. With a high Late Pace figure, he’s likely to improve with added ground. Gaffalione returns, and Walsh’s record with second-time starters boosts his chances.

#5 Render Judgment (5-1)

  • Jockey: B.J. Hernandez Jr. (616 99 .16)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 14%

  • Trainer: K. McPeek (503 70 .14)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 79, Late 77
    Comment: Render Judgment rallied well for second in his debut at Keeneland, showing grit in the stretch. Hernandez retains the mount, and McPeek’s experience with route races for young horses makes this colt an appealing option.

#10 Shogun (6-1)

  • Jockey: C.J. Lanerie (496 67 .14)

  • Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

  • Trainer: D. Romans (213 26 .12)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 85, Late 67
    Comment: Shogun has shown steady improvement across his starts, including a close second on a sloppy track at Churchill. His tactical versatility and Lanerie’s skill with off-the-pace runners suggest he can be in the mix with another step forward.