📖🏇 Handicapping with Tom: "The Pace Pressure Factor"

When analyzing a race, pay close attention to the projected pace scenario. Horses with early speed might dominate in races with little pressure up front, while a contested pace could set the stage for a closer to swoop in late. Look for horses with strong closing fractions in recent starts or those proven to handle a fast pace effectively. Combine this analysis with track bias—if recent races favor speed or closers, adjust your selections accordingly. Today’s race conditions might reveal the hidden gem you need for your tickets.

In today’s Newsletter:

• Aqueduct Today: Alpine Princess stretches in Comely after romp in return

• Churchill Today: Tough Catch Poised for Strong Showing in Ed Brown Society Stakes

• College football's top games today: Rivalry Week schedule, what you should watch

• FREE PICKS FOR TODAY for a Narrow Victory in the Mother Goose

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Aqueduct TODAY

Alpine Princess stretches in Comely after romp in return

OZONE PARK, N.Y. – The Remington Park Oaks has established itself as a springboard for fillies destined for greater achievements, with past winners like She’s a Julie, Envoutante, and Honor D Lady going on to secure graded stakes victories.

Connections of Alpine Princess are optimistic she’ll follow a similar path. The daughter of Classic Empire is the probable favorite for Saturday’s Grade 3, $200,000 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct.

Trained by Brad Cox and owned by Full of Run Racing and Madaket Stables, Alpine Princess made a triumphant return from a six-month hiatus with a commanding 9 3/4-length victory in the Remington Oaks on Sept. 29. Her performance was visually stunning and statistically notable, earning her a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Despite racing wide and being handled lightly by Florent Geroux, she dominated the field.

“I’m not sure what the competition was like at Remington, but she was impressive,” Cox said. “The numbers support her performance. If she repeats that effort, she’ll be competitive.”

Alpine Princess has proven herself at 1 1/16 miles but will stretch out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the Comely.

“She’s not a large filly, but she moves well and has a strong stride,” Cox added. “I’m hopeful she’ll manage the added distance.”

Manny Franco will guide Alpine Princess from post 3.

The Comely features a field of seven 3-year-old fillies, including three entrants from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Among them is Life Talk, who won the Grade 2 Demoiselle at 1 1/8 miles as a juvenile. In her latest start, she finished a closing second to stablemate Miss Justify in the Seneca Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 21.

Get the Edge with Today’s Expert Selections
With a field this competitive, insider knowledge can make all the difference. Don’t miss your chance to leverage expert handicapping—order your selections for today’s races and increase your chances of winning.

Churchill Downs Today:

Tough Catch Poised for Strong Showing in Ed Brown Society Stakes

Action on Saturday’s Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs features an exciting lineup of races, including two high-stakes sprints for juveniles and several promising maiden and allowance events.

Tough Catch enters the $225,000 Ed Brown Society Stakes with a solid resume, marked by just one off-the-board finish in his young career. That effort came in the Grade 1 Hopeful, where he faced far tougher competition than he meets in Saturday’s 6 1/2-furlong race. A son of Complexity, one of this year’s leading freshman sires, Tough Catch captured his debut at Saratoga over 5 1/2 furlongs, earning a respectable 78 Beyer Speed Figure. After his eighth-place finish in the Hopeful, he rebounded with a sharp second in the six-furlong Bowman Mill at Keeneland, where he altered course late and missed by just half a length, matching his debut Beyer of 78.

Tough Catch is trained by Dallas Stewart, who is on the brink of a major milestone, sitting at 999 career wins. Stewart has a full slate of entries on Saturday’s card, with six juveniles competing at Churchill and one runner at Fair Grounds.

Notable Contenders in the Ed Brown Society Stakes

• Glean: A $450,000 yearling by McKinzie, Glean broke his maiden sprinting on turf at Keeneland in his last start for Wesley Ward.

• Wisconsin Gal: Seeking to become the first filly to win the Ed Brown, she broke her maiden last out in her sixth career start and provides jockey Killian Leonard with his first Churchill Downs stakes mount.

• Thrilla: A versatile runner cutting back in distance, Thrilla showed dominance with an 18-length maiden win at Colonial Downs but has struggled to sustain his speed in longer races.

• Keep It Easy: With a career-best 79 Beyer from his maiden win at Churchill Downs, this colt returns to sprinting after encountering trouble in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.

The field of eight for the Ed Brown looks pace-heavy, with Thrilla and Keep It Easy likely to push the tempo. Tough Catch and Glean, breaking from inside posts, have shown versatility to either press or stalk the pace, giving jockeys Tyler Gaffalione and Gerardo Corrales critical decisions to make early.

The Sister Race: $225,000 Fern Creek Stakes

Echo Sound leads the field of fillies in the Fern Creek with an undefeated record in three starts, including a Churchill allowance and the Myrtlewood at Keeneland, where she earned an 84 Beyer. Impulse Buy and Shezafunkydrummer also bring stakes experience and impressive past performances to this competitive race.

Spotlight on Promising Runners

• Chasten: Making her debut in the day’s first race, this half-sister to champion Idiomatic is trained by Brad Cox and represents Juddmonte Farms.

• Disco Time: Another Brad Cox trainee, Disco Time impressed in her debut and stretches out to a mile in an allowance later on the card.

• Running Away: A well-bred filly by Gun Runner, she switches to dirt in the second race after narrow turf defeats, suggesting she could thrive with the surface change.

With so many promising runners on display, Saturday’s Stars of Tomorrow card offers a glimpse at potential future stars on their way to bigger stages.

1) Michigan (+19.5) vs. Ohio State When to watch: 12 p.m. on Fox
2) South Carolina (+2.5) vs. Clemson When to Watch 12 p.m. on ESPN
3) Notre Dame (-7) vs. USC When to watch: 3:30 p.m. on CBS
4) Auburn (+11) vs. Alabama When to watch: 3:30 p.m. on ABC
5) Texas (-5.5) vs. Texas A&M When to watch: 7:30 p.m. on ABC

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Aqueduct Free Pick 4th race

#1 Trinity River (5-2)
Trinity River has been consistent, hitting the board in all three starts on turf. Now switching to dirt, Rice's high win rate with surface changes (22%) is a strong indicator of potential improvement. His tactical speed should place him in a good stalking position, and his Beyer figure of 68 is the highest in the field. A logical favorite with a strong chance to graduate today.

#2 New Matthew (7-2)
New Matthew comes off a runner-up effort on turf and now transitions to dirt. Though his lone dirt start was subpar, this colt is bred to handle this surface, being a son of Flatter. The drop in pace figures from early to late suggests he’ll benefit from a race with moderate early fractions. A serious contender for exactas and trifectas.

#8 Tap It Easy (9-2)
Tap It Easy showed early speed in his debut on turf but faded late. The switch to dirt and stretching out in distance could improve his chances, especially with a pedigree suited for dirt routes. Carmouche excels with front-runners, and this colt’s early speed makes him dangerous if left alone on the lead. A potential upset candidate.

#3 Runamor (8-1)
Runamor debuts for the high-percentage Rice-Lezcano combination, which is formidable with first-time starters. The work tab suggests this colt is well-prepared, including a sharp five-furlong drill. By Runhappy out of a Curlin mare, his pedigree indicates both speed and stamina. A wildcard with the potential to fire big at first asking.

CHURCHILL FREE PICK 11th race

#2 Jonathan’s Way (5-2)

Jonathan’s Way is the most accomplished runner in the field, with a dominant win in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill. He faced tougher company in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he raced evenly and finished mid-pack. His strong early pace and finishing ability make him a standout.

#3 Tiztastic (5-1)

Tiztastic has been highly consistent, showing excellent form with a Grade 3 placing last out at Churchill. He stretches out further today, and his 79 Beyer suggests he belongs at this level. Asmussen’s strong record with juveniles in graded stakes and Torres’ aggressive riding style make him a legitimate threat.

#8 First Resort (9-2)

First Resort’s Beyers have been steadily improving, and his tactical speed makes him a versatile contender. He ran a solid race in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine on turf and has been sharp on dirt as well. With Saez aboard, he’s likely to be forwardly placed, making him a live player.

#1 He’s Not Joking (8-1)

He’s Not Joking is improving with each start, coming off a Grade 3 win on synthetic at Woodbine. His 84 Beyer fits well, and the switch to dirt is an intriguing angle given his pedigree. Carroll’s success with transitioning surfaces and Geroux’s tactical riding style make him a dark horse at attractive odds.