Free Aqueduct and Churchill Picks for Sunday 11-10-2024

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Churchill Downs Results
1st race

#4 Hey Boss (5-1)Returns from layoff but trainer solid 36% with 61-180 day layoffs. Won twice over this track. Should get honest pace to run at. Will be running late at a solid price.

#5 Mad Adam (5-2) Strong connections with Amoss hitting 19% overall. Last two races show improving form. Can stalk the pace and make move turning for home. Proven over track and distance. Will be rolling late.

#1 Quencio (8-1) Comment: Quencio is a high-value option for those seeking an overlay, likely to take an early lead given his pace advantage. The potential for softer fractions in this field improves his value, especially for exotic wagers. An ideal choice for those betting on his ability to wire the field if he goes uncontested up front.

Winner #5 Mad Adam $10.86
Second #6 Sixwillberich $2 Exacta $36.30
Third #4 Hey Boss .50 Trifecta $46.86
Fourth #1 Quencio .10 Super 22.85

3rd race

#5 Miss Tappy Tone (5-2) Miss Tappy Tone has been showing improvement, with a consistent Beyer in the low 70s, making her competitive in this field. She finished a close second in her last race and displayed a strong closing kick, suggesting she can be effective if there’s a fast pace up front. Machado's impressive win rate (31%) adds confidence to her chances, especially if she finds a strong pace to run into.

#3 Corkage Fee (3-1) Corkage Fee has demonstrated an ability to press or set the pace, which could work to her advantage here if she secures a tactical trip. With Santana aboard, she may get an aggressive ride to take advantage of her speed. She was claimed last out by Pino who is hitting at a good 22% with his claims in their first start and has found the perfect spot for this filly.

#2 Rock Star Doctor (4-1) Rock Star Doctor has been competitive at this level and recently showed improvement in form. With Amoss’s solid record in claimers, Rock Star Doctor can capitalize if a swift early pace develops, setting up her closing kick. While she has struggled to hit the board consistently, her back-class and recent form suggest she could be a late threat here.

#6 Mo Sense (7-2) Mo Sense has the highest late pace figure in the field, which makes her a strong contender if the pace collapses. She has performed well in recent outings and has shown consistency in her Beyers. If she can replicate her last effort, she’ll be in the mix, especially given Bejarano’s skill with closers.

Winner #5 Miss Tappy Tone $6.52
Second #6 Mo Sense $2 exacta $19.26

4th race

#8 Just Ruthless (7-2) Strong debut when second in Keeneland turf route last out. Showed tactical speed and kept trying. Should move forward second time out. Bred for turf being by Justify out of Speightstown mare.

#4 Are You a Spy (8-1) Are You a Spy has shown some late pace ability, making her a good choice if the race turns into a closer’s game on the off-track. Her Beyers are below some others, but her running style and Jimenez’s patience could suit the expected pace.

#3 Humbled (10-1) Humbled has shown moderate pace figures but could benefit from Saez’s experience, especially given her versatile running style. If the pace collapses, she could be in a prime position to make a late move and contend for a high finish, offering value at her morning line odds.

#10 Frosted Kisses (12-1) As a first-time starter, Frosted Kisses presents an unknown factor, but with Amoss’s high success rate with new horses and Morales’s experience, she could make an impact here. If her workouts translate to race form, she could benefit from a slower pace or tiring leaders on the dirt.

Winner #8 Just Ruthless $4.10

5th race

#3 Nom de Plume (5-2) Consistent filly with strong back class, including a 91 Beyer two back when second in N3X company. Tactical speed to get good position and proven at this level. Strong connections and should get perfect stalking trip.

#6 Stellar Lily (5-1) Stellar Lily has a strong pace and proven form in both dirt and off tracks. Her tactical speed allows her to press the pace, a valuable skill in this field. Though her last few Beyers are slightly lower, she’s well-positioned to challenge for a place with a good trip, especially if the pace quickens up front.

#1 Fee (15-1) Fee has shown competence in allowance races, though stepping up here may pose a challenge. Handles wet conditions well, with solid finishes on sloppy and muddy tracks. Expected to track behind early leaders, making a mid-stretch bid if the pace weakens up front.

#8 Miss Arlington (8-1) A versatile filly who can adapt to various track conditions, Miss Arlington is well-suited for today’s sloppy track. She will likely press the pace early, and her stamina should help her hold position in the stretch. Good value potential if overlooked due to prior inconsistent finishes.

Winner #3 Mom De Plume $2.92
Second #8 Miss Arlington $2 exacta $9.64
Third #6 Stellar Lily .50 Trifecta $7.61

6th race

#12 J J's Ranger (3-1) Shows consistent improvement with two seconds and a third in last four starts. Strong second last out earning 67 Beyer when just missing at this level. Gets perfect setup as a presser with tactical speed to secure good position. Hartman excels with maiden claimers (16%). High percentage rider/trainer combo and should appreciate slight turnback in distance. The one to beat.

#11 Bisate (7-2) Bisate’s last performance shows improvement, and with Bauer’s strong record, he could be positioned for a forward move. Though his Beyer is slightly lower than others, his pace figures suggest he could benefit from a stalking position, potentially making a late run if the leaders tire.

#8 Levee Was Dry (6-1)Levee Was Dry possesses the highest early pace figure, suggesting he could challenge for the lead. His Beyer is in range for this field, and with Machado aboard, he’s an interesting speed option, especially if he secures a favorable position near the front.

Winner #12 J J’s Ranger $7.28
Second #8 Levee Was Drive $2 Exacta $20.18

9th race

#9 Cornishman (9-2)

• Jockey: L. Saez (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: B. Cox (24% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo: 33% Churchill Downs performance in 2023-24

• Pace Figures: Early 84, Late 100

• Last Beyer: 85

• Field Beyer Average: 83

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: 3-year-old continuing to improve for Cox barn that hits at 27% overall. Comes off strong runner-up effort at this level two back earning 85 Beyer. Prior to that showed strong late interest to be second in allowance optional claimer at Churchill, demonstrating affinity for the track. Has excellent stalking style for what projects as contested pace. Working steadily including bullet :59.3 five-furlong drill. Gets leading rider Saez who excels from off the pace. Steadily improving Beyers suggest he still has upside. Tactical speed to get good position and should relish added ground.

#5 Eglise (7-2) In career best form with consistent Beyers in mid-80s range. Won maiden impressively at Keeneland last out showing ability to rate and finish. Must deal with other speed but has tactical versatility. Sharp works including bullet 47.2 drill suggests continued good form. Main pace rival but could prove tough if able to secure lead.

#6 Midnight Raid (5-1) Midnight Raid’s late pace gives him a solid chance to close into any hot pace set by the leaders. He’s shown recent improvement, with an 87 Beyer, and his running style will suit him well if the pace is quick. Look for him to make a late move in the stretch.

#7 Hall of Fame (4-1) Hall of Fame posted an impressive 87 Beyer in his last race, and with Asmussen's training, he’s expected to be competitive here. His ability to press or sit just off the pace is valuable, and with Gaffalione aboard, he’s well-positioned for a strong finish.

#7 HALL OF FAME (4-1) Extremely well-bred $1.4 million Gun Runner colt showing steady progression for high-percentage Asmussen barn. Earned career-best 94 Beyer breaking maiden impressively at Fair Grounds, showing both tactical speed and ability to finish. Had legitimate excuses in stakes tries since then, steadied early in Louisiana Derby before fading and caught on wrong part of track in Risen Star. Returns to allowance company where he should be much more competitive. Gets top rider Gaffalione who's been riding at 17% clip at meet. Major contender who could be ready for breakthrough performance dropping from stakes company. Worth strong consideration at expected price given trainer's strong numbers with layoff runners.

Winner #13 Yellow Brick $11.74
Second #5 Eglise $2 Exacta $41.30
Third #9 Cornishman .50 Trifecta $23.58