Free Breeders Cup and Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday 11-2

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Today’s Free Picks

DEL MAR 4TH RACE Post: 3:00 PM ET

#6 Society (3-1)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (17% in 2024)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (17% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 20%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 118 Late 72

• Beyer Speed Figure: 102

• Field Beyer Average: 96

• Running style: Speed

Comment: Controlling speed posted a career-best 102 Beyer taking the G1 Ballerina wire-to-wire through honest fractions of :22 2/5, :44 4/5, 1:09. Prior to that ran into blazing splits chasing Vahva in the Chicago. Asmussen hits at 17% with 61-180 day layoffs and her works suggest she's maintained form. Main concern is potential early pressure from One Magic Philly, Pleasant and Ways and Means, but her ability to rate slightly off the pace if needed gives her options. Her 8-for-14 career record shows she knows how to win.

#10 Scylla (10-1)

• Jockey: M. Smith (17% in 2024)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (16% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): N/A

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 99 Late 105

• Beyer Speed Figure: 96

• Field Beyer Average: 96

• Running style: Stalker

Comment: Value play exits a strong second in Ballerina where she pressed Society through splits of :22 2/5, :44 4/5 before just getting outfinished while well clear of the rest. Prior to that challenged Adare Manor throughout in G1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar, suggesting affinity for the surface. Gets a positive rider switch to "Big Money Mike" Smith who excels in these spots. Her versatile running style allows her to adapt to any pace scenario and Mott's 23% win rate with 61-180 day layoffs suggests she'll fire fresh.

#9 Ways and Means (5-2)

• Jockey: F. Prat (22% in 2024)

• Trainer: Chad Brown (24% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 24%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 104 Late 91

• Beyer Speed Figure: 101

• Field Beyer Average: 96

• Running style: Presser

Comment: Progressive three-year-old has found another gear since cutting back in distance, with her TimeformUS pace figures suggesting ideal setup here. Her 101 Beyer in the Gallant Bloom came while drawing off by 5 lengths despite racing over a sloppy track she may not have loved. Has the tactical speed to secure position from outside post and her :22 1/4, :45 3/5 internal fractions last out show she can match strides with Society early. Getting a 4-pound weight break as a sophomore and her ascending pattern (90-98-101) suggests more improvement possible.

#4 Vahva (4-1)

• Jockey: I. Ortiz Jr. (20% in 2024)

• Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (15% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 35%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 99 Late 86

• Beyer Speed Figure: 103

• Field Beyer Average: 96

• Running style: Stalker

Comment: Possesses the field's top Beyer (103) from her Dogwood win and her last three starts at 7F produced figures of 103-99-93, suggesting she's found her sweet spot. Her versatile running style allows her to adapt - she won the Chicago on the lead but was just as effective stalking in the Ballerina. Key works of :48 flat and :59 3/5 at Keeneland show she's holding form.

Value Play: While Ways and Means will take heavy action off the impressive Gallant Bloom win, Scylla at 10-1 offers tremendous value. Her close second to Society in the Ballerina shows she belongs, she owns a strong race over the track, and the added pace pressure could set up perfectly for her grinding style. The positive jockey switch to Smith and Mott's excellent layoff numbers make her very playable at double-digit odds.

CHURCHILL 9TH RACE Post 6:10 PM Et

#4 Unleash the Power (4-1)

• Jockey: Graham J (8% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Albert Stall Jr. (15% win rate in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 77 / Late 103

• Beyer Speed Figure (Last Race): 84

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Unleash the Power has shown consistent late speed and a strong finishing kick. His recent form includes a solid win at Saratoga where he closed from mid-pack. He handles turf well and has a sharp late pace figure that could benefit him in this field if the pace is honest. Expect him to settle back and make a strong late run, likely gaining ground in the final stretch.

#3 Oscar Season (9-2)

• Jockey: Loveberry J (13% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Brendan Walsh (15% win rate in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 80 / Late 96

• Beyer Speed Figure (Last Race): 81

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Oscar Season broke his maiden impressively and followed up with a good third-place finish in stakes company. His stalking style will keep him in a good position just behind the leaders, and he has shown enough late energy to contend in the stretch. With recent strong performances over a similar distance, Oscar Season could be a serious contender if he finds clear running room.

#5 Half Dome (6-1)

• Jockey: Corrales G (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael McCarthy (17% win rate in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 78 / Late 79

• Beyer Speed Figure (Last Race): 75

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Half Dome showed good tactical speed in his maiden-breaking effort at Keeneland, where he pressed the pace and then drew clear. His tactical speed should allow him to secure a good spot near the front, and his recent performances on turf have been solid. Look for him to be involved early, with potential to hang on for a share if he maintains his momentum.

#2 Mount Horeb (8-1)

• Jockey: Concepcion A (13% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Roger Attfield (9% win rate in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 85 / Late 75

• Beyer Speed Figure (Last Race): 85

• Running Style: Speed/Stalker

Comment: Mount Horeb comes in off a solid front-running win at Woodbine and could provide pace pressure if he chooses to go forward early. His speed and stamina are assets in this field, and his ability to adapt to different pace scenarios gives him an edge if he can establish an advantageous early position. His recent figures suggest he can contend here.

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