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🐎🎯 Handicapping with Tom: "The Stalker's Sweet Spot"
In horse racing, stalkers often find themselves in the perfect position to strike. These horses sit just off the pace, conserving energy while tracking the leaders. Their tactical speed allows them to avoid early speed duels and position themselves for a late surge in the stretch. Look for runners with consistent mid-race pace figures, especially in fields with multiple front-runners likely to tire each other out. On tracks that favor strong finishers or in races with a hot pace scenario, the stalker's patience can lead to victory. Keep an eye on these smart strategists—they often deliver value at the betting window!
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🏇🏇Churchill Downs Wednesday
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🏇🏇Free Picks for Wednesday:
Churchill Downs Race #7
#7 Briterdayzahead (5-2)
Jockey: E. Asmussen (16% 2024)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (17% 2024)
J/T Combo 2023-24: 17%
TimeformUS Pace: Early 116 Late 50
Last Beyer: 87
Running Style: Speed
Comment: Dominant winner of 3 of last 4 including last out $20K claimer with field-best 87 Beyer. Now first start off claim for Asmussen who hits 16% first off the claim. Showing clear ascending Beyer pattern (82-91-87) indicating peak form. Controls the pace with superior early speed figures and rail-favoring track helps. Sharp 38.3 bullet signals readiness. Logical choice despite class hike.
#1 Summer Splash (7-2)
Jockey: R. Bejarano (14% 2024)
Trainer: Chris Hartman (16% 2024)
J/T Combo 2023-24: 20%
TimeformUS Pace: Early 89 Late 70
Last Beyer: 82
Running Style: Press
Comment: Veteran campaigner fresh off sharp win at this level at ElP. Hartman excels with last-out winners (21%) and maintaining sharp form (20% winners overall). solid works since victory including 47.4 show maintenance of form. Best tactical speed numbers in field outside top choice. 7-for-17 record proves competitiveness. Projects perfect pressing trip behind speed.
#2 Top Gun Tommy (4-1)
Jockey: S. Camacho Jr (14% 2024)
Trainer: David Jacobson (16% 2024)
J/T Combo 2023-24: 27%
TimeformUS Pace: Early 92 Late 75
Last Beyer: 68
Running Style: Press
Comment: Class-dropping veteran with back class including multiple 90+ Beyers this year. Superb lifetime record (11-7-5 from 32 starts) shows consistency. Can sit perfect stalking trip from outside post. Recent 53.4 work slower than usual but fits on best efforts. Dangerous with any forward move.
#8 Lunar Module (12-1)
Jockey: E. Morales (13% 2024)
Trainer: Jordan Blair (21% 2024)
J/T Combo 2023-24: 13%
TimeformUS Pace: Early 103 Late 64
Last Beyer: 63
Running Style: Speed
Comment: Live price play Sharp 47.3 bullet work shows readiness to improve at third start off layoff. Front-running style could be compromised by presence of top choice but boasts enough tactical speed to adjust. Past proven at this level with multiple strong performances. Strong record at this distance (2 wins from 5 starts). Strong value play with improving pattern.