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BELMONT FREE PICK

Race 8 Preview for Belmont at the Big A - The Ticonderoga Stakes

The Ticonderoga Stakes, a $200,000 turf test for New York-bred fillies and mares, brings together a talented field competing over 1 1/16 miles. This race promises an intriguing mix of pace and closing power, making positioning and timing critical to secure the win.

Projected Pace Analysis

This field shows a balanced mix of speed and closers, suggesting a moderate pace. Here’s an overview of the expected running styles:

• #6 Moonage Daydream and #7 Spun Glass are likely to push the early tempo, with both known for setting or stalking the pace in recent performances. Moonage Daydream especially has tactical speed, and with jockey Flavien Prat aboard, she’ll aim to take control early without expending too much energy.

• #5 Whatlovelookslike and #4 Runaway Rumor should position themselves just behind the leaders, sitting comfortably off the pace to make a middle move if the speed slows.

• #1 Silver Skillet and #3 Caldwell Luvs Gold are likely to settle mid-pack. These runners have shown a strong ability to close and will be waiting to strike late.

• #8 A Little Faith and #2 New York Girl project to sit farther back, reserving their energy for a deep closing bid. Both have shown a preference for making one late move, so they’ll likely be aiming to pick off rivals in the stretch.

Turning for Home

As the field enters the final turn, expect Moonage Daydream to maintain a narrow lead, with Spun Glass pressing her and testing her pace. Runaway Rumor should be positioned just outside the leaders, looking for an opening to make her move. Whatlovelookslike will likely be tracking this group, ready to unleash her late kick in the stretch.

Behind the front pack, Caldwell Luvs Gold and Silver Skillet will be biding their time, positioned to swing wide and accelerate down the stretch. Farther back, A Little Faith and New York Girl will start to angle out and mount their late charges, looking to close down the leaders from the outside.

Top Selections and How the Race Should Unfold

#1 Silver Skillet (7-2)

Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Silver Skillet has shown a strong late kick in previous performances, and her high late pace figure makes her a formidable closer in this field. Expect Rosario to settle her mid-pack, saving ground along the rail, then swing out turning for home. If the pace is even moderately quick, she’ll have ample opportunity to pass tiring frontrunners.

Projection: Silver Skillet should be winding up her run turning for home, angling out and driving forward with a strong finish in the final furlong.

#3 Caldwell Luvs Gold (5-1)

Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Caldwell Luvs Gold brings a versatile style to this race, capable of adapting to both pace setups and tracking the leaders closely. She’s been consistent at this level, finishing in the money in recent starts. Geroux is likely to keep her within striking range mid-pack, allowing her to unleash a late run when the leaders start to tire.

Projection: Caldwell Luvs Gold should be within two lengths of the lead at the top of the stretch, angling out to press forward as she eyes the leaders.

#6 Moonage Daydream (3-1)

Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Jorge Abreu
With her tactical speed, Moonage Daydream is positioned to set or press the pace. Prat’s skillful handling of pace horses could allow her to steal this race if she manages a moderate tempo up front. However, she’ll need to be wary of the strong closers poised to challenge in the final furlongs.

Projection: Expect Moonage Daydream to turn for home with a narrow lead, holding off challenges but bracing for the late speed from mid-pack runners.

#5 Whatlovelookslike (9-2)

Jockey: Dylan Davis
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Whatlovelookslike has the late speed to threaten if positioned well. Davis will likely keep her in the first wave behind the leaders, staying within range to mount a closing effort. If the leaders have expended too much energy up front, Whatlovelookslike could capitalize and push through the final eighth.

Projection: Whatlovelookslike should be well-positioned in the first wave of chasers as they turn for home, ready to strike as she accelerates in the stretch.

Expected Race Outcome

This race should develop with Moonage Daydream setting a moderate pace, likely closely tracked by Spun Glass and Runaway Rumor. If the frontrunners go too fast, expect a scenario favoring strong closers like Silver Skillet and Caldwell Luvs Gold, who will be driving forward late. Whatlovelookslike could find herself in an ideal stalking spot, benefiting from a forward position while keeping fresh for a stretch battle.

Ultimately, Silver Skillet and Caldwell Luvs Gold project to close strongly, with Moonage Daydream attempting to hold her position. With the right pace setup, Silver Skillet could rally from mid-pack to claim the victory in the final strides, showcasing her powerful late speed.

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CHURCHILL FREE PICKS

Race 10 Preview for Churchill Downs - The Street Sense Stakes (Grade III)

The Street Sense Stakes is a competitive Grade III event at Churchill Downs, showcasing promising two-year-olds over a distance of 1 mile on dirt. With a purse of $200,000, this race will test both the tactical speed and stamina of these young runners as they navigate the challenging mile.

Projected Pace Analysis

The pace here is expected to be moderately quick, with multiple contenders likely vying for early positioning. #6 Dapper Moon and #8 Comes a Time are both known for their front-running styles and will likely aim to secure the lead from the break. #7 Tiztastic also possesses tactical speed and could press the leaders to ensure a solid pace up front.

Meanwhile, #4 Sandman and #10 Sovereignty are likely to settle mid-pack, conserving energy for a well-timed move in the stretch. Deep closers such as #5 Reach for the Rose and #3 Baby Boat are expected to stay back early, looking to make their presence felt with a strong late charge if the leaders tire.

Turning for Home

As they approach the stretch, Comes a Time and Dapper Moon are projected to be battling for the lead, having set a controlled pace up front. Tiztastic should be in close pursuit, ready to make a move if the leaders show any signs of fatigue. Sandman and Sovereignty will likely be positioned just behind the leaders, conserving their momentum and preparing to challenge in the final furlong.

In the meantime, Reach for the Rose and Baby Boat will begin to launch their closing bids from further back. Expect them to gain ground rapidly if the pace up front has softened, bringing a thrilling element to the final strides.

Top Selections and How the Race Should Unfold

#8 Comes a Time (7-2)

Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Comes a Time delivered an impressive debut win and has shown he can handle pressure up front. With Saez’s experience in guiding pace horses, Comes a Time should secure a prominent position early. If he controls the pace without significant challenges, he’ll be tough to pass in the stretch.

Projection: Comes a Time should be near the front turning for home, with the ability to kick clear if Saez times his move right.

#10 Sovereignty (5-1)

Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Sovereignty has shown steady improvement and enters this race with a solid closing ability. His recent performance suggests he can sit off the leaders and launch a late bid. If the pace is solid, Sovereignty will be in an ideal spot to strike late.

Projection: Positioned mid-pack, Sovereignty should be moving into contention as they turn for home, looking to pick off the frontrunners in the final furlong.

#5 Tiztastic (3-1)

Jockey: Cristian Torres
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
With experience in both sprint and route races, Tiztastic brings versatility to this event. His tactical speed allows him to sit close to the leaders, and he’ll likely stalk Comes a Time and Dapper Moon before making his move in the stretch.

Projection: Tiztastic should be right behind the leaders at the top of the stretch, poised to challenge if they begin to tire.

#4 Sandman (9-2)

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Mark Casse
Sandman has shown ability over distance and brings a steady closing kick. If positioned well, he’ll benefit from a strong early pace, allowing him to rally from just off the pace. His tactical placement should keep him within range.

Projection: Sandman will likely sit mid-pack, preparing to unleash a late move as they turn for home, hoping to reel in the leaders.

Expected Race Outcome

As they enter the stretch, Comes a Time and Dapper Moon should be at the front, with Tiztastic looming just behind, ready to capitalize if either leader falters. Sovereignty and Sandman will be making their moves from mid-pack, positioning themselves to take advantage of any fading front-runners.

If Comes a Time manages to sustain his pace, he could hold off the late charges and secure the win. However, if the early pace softens, Sovereignty and Sandman could close the gap, making for an exciting stretch battle. Tiztastic could also find himself in the mix if he maintains a steady trip behind the leaders, making this a race where timing and positioning will be key.

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