Breeders Cup Day 1 Free Picks

Did you know? The first-ever Breeders' Cup in 1984 made history when Wild Again, a 31-1 longshot, won the Classic after a dramatic three-horse battle to the finish. It was one of the most thrilling finishes in racing history, and the Breeders' Cup has continued to deliver unforgettable moments ever since!

In today’s Post:

• Trainer Brendan Walsh’s Redemption Story: East Avenue Takes on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

• Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Key Contenders Start from Challenging Posts

• Super Swift Makes Turf Debut in Friday’s Atlantic Beach Stakes

Today’s Links:

👉 Breeders Cup Selections – Order Your Picks Now!

DEL MAR 5TH RACE Post: 5:05 PM ET

#4 I'M A BAD BOY (5-2)

• Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez (11% in 2024)

• Trainer: Luis Mendez (17% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer 2023-24: 20%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 104 Late 42

• Last 3 Beyers: 70, 67, 63

• Running style: Speed/Presser

Comment: Shows the most consistent progression among these while facing tougher company, culminating in back to back wins including a sharp win last out where he earned a field-best last-race Beyer of 70. His tactical speed is a major weapon - he's shown the ability to either set the pace or press from just off it. The Mendez barn is exceptional with Cal-breds (21% win rate) and particularly dangerous with last-out winners returning in similar spots. Each of his races shows clear improvement and the fact he's proven over this track (3-1-1-1) is significant. The early pace figure of 104 suggests he'll be prominently placed without having to be used too hard early.

#3 R HEISMAN (7-2)

• Jockey: Juan Hernandez (24% in 2024)

• Trainer: Peter Miller (14% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer 2023-24: 23%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 88 Late 76

• Last 3 Beyers: 67, 63, 74

• Running style: Stalker

Comment: Here's a battle-tested veteran who's faced graded stakes company in his last two, including the G1 Del Mar Futurity where he wasn't disgraced. The cutback to 7 furlongs could be exactly what he needs - his best numbers have come sprinting and that field-best 74 Beyer came in the Graduating Stakes at this track. Miller shows a positive ROI with horses dropping from graded stakes and the presence of Hernandez, who's clicking at 24% this meet, is telling. His versatile running style allows him to adapt to any pace scenario.

#1 Steak Fries (9-2)

• Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (2024 Win %: 13%)

• Trainer: Craig Lewis (2024 Win %: 16%)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 11%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 65 | Late 53

• Beyer Speed Figure: 68

• Field Beyer Average: 65

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Steak Fries demonstrated strong closing ability in his last start, winning from just off the pace. With a Beyer of 68, he’s well-suited to a pace setup that could allow him to track the leaders closely and make a late move. Lewis is known for training two-year-olds effectively, and Kimura’s patient style complements this horse’s need to conserve energy and strike in the final stages.

#7 Speedy Wilson (6-1)

• Jockey: Alexander Ayuso (2024 Win %: 13%)

• Trainer: Philip D’Amato (2024 Win %: 16%)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 12%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 89 | Late 64

• Beyer Speed Figure: 76

• Field Beyer Average: 65

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Speedy Wilson’s recent victory at Santa Anita, where he battled up front and dug in for a narrow win, reflects his competitive drive. With a Beyer of 76, he’s capable of sitting mid-pack and has shown adaptability to various pace scenarios. D’Amato has a reputation for conditioning horses to peak in stakes, and if the pace turns hot, Speedy Wilson could be well-positioned to capitalize in the stretch.

BELMONT 7TH RACE

#8 Ramblin' Wreck (7-2)

• Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Danny Gargan (23% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 52, Late 118

• Beyer Speed Figure: 88

• Field Beyer Average: 84

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Ramblin' Wreck’s powerful closing style is backed by a Late Pace figure of 118, making him ideally suited for a field likely to see a fast early pace. He’s shown a knack for closing ground rapidly in the final furlong, especially in his last two starts where he surged late against similar competition. If the early fractions are quick, expect him to come charging down the stretch.

#1 Itsallcomintogetha (6-1)

• Jockey: Julien Leparoux (8% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Lisa Bartkowski (0% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 0%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 107, Late 81

• Beyer Speed Figure: 90

• Field Beyer Average: 84

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Itsallcomintogetha has a strong pace balance and a recent Beyer of 90, one of the best in this field, signaling he can hold his own at this level. His stalking style allows him to sit close to the leaders without expending too much energy. With a recent in-the-money finish on similar turf conditions, he’s shown he can handle the pace here. Leparoux’s tactical style could keep him in an ideal striking position to contend as they turn for home.

#7 Bring Me a Check (4-1)

• Jockey: Dylan Davis (10% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael Maker (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 10%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 102, Late 88

• Beyer Speed Figure: 89

• Field Beyer Average: 84

• Running Style: Front Runner

Comment: Bring Me a Check has shown the ability to lead and control the pace, often extending his speed through mid-race with a Beyer of 89. His early speed makes him a serious threat if he gets to the front unchallenged. If he sets reasonable fractions, he has a solid chance to wire this field or at least be a strong presence late.

BREEDERS CUP NEWS

Trainer Brendan Walsh’s Redemption Story: East Avenue Takes on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Del Mar, CA – In 2019, trainer Brendan Walsh headed to California with an undefeated 2-year-old colt he believed was destined to make waves in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Unfortunately, just after entries were set, Maxfield sustained a minor injury, ending his shot at the title. But Maxfield went on to build an impressive career, winning 8 of 11 starts, including multiple Grade 1 races.

Fast forward to 2024, and Walsh is back with another unbeaten 2-year-old, East Avenue, this time at Del Mar instead of Santa Anita. East Avenue enters the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a top contender, favored to win after his 5-length Grade 1 victory at Keeneland. Like Maxfield, he’s caught the racing world’s attention, coming into Friday’s $2 million Juvenile with the same winning streak. Walsh reflects, “The similarities between Maxfield and East Avenue are uncanny, and it feels great to have another shot at the Juvenile.”

The Juvenile is just one thrilling race in the lineup as the Breeders' Cup kicks off today. Don't miss out on any of the action or expert insights! Get my Breeders' Cup Advantage package for in-depth selections, race strategies, and tips to stay ahead of the competition this weekend. CLICK HERE TO GET YOUR ADVANTAGE SELECTIONS

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Key Contenders Start from Challenging Posts

In Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar, some of the top European contenders are up against a significant hurdle—challenging outside post positions. Legendary trainer Aidan O’Brien, a six-time Juvenile Turf winner, and jockey Ryan Moore aim to overcome the odds with Henri Matisse, who drew post 13. Known as one of the highest-quality horses in the field, Henri Matisse will require a brilliant ride from Moore to navigate the tight turns and 919-foot homestretch at Del Mar, a track notorious for favoring inside positions.

Trainer Charlie Appleby, with three Juvenile Turf titles under his belt, has two strong contenders: Al Qudra, who narrowly missed victory in the Summer Stakes, and Aomori City, a right-handed runner coming off a solid campaign in England. Both drew wide posts, making the journey to the wire even more challenging.

The field also includes standout American trainer Chad Brown’s Zulu Kingdom, unbeaten in three starts, and Todd Pletcher’s trio, headlined by Noble Confessor, a recent turf standout with an eye-catching late run. Japan’s Satono Carnaval and other international entries promise a truly global and competitive race, adding excitement to this year’s Juvenile Turf lineup.

Get ready for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and all the thrilling races this weekend! Order my Breeders’ Cup Advantage package for expert picks and analysis, giving you the edge you need to capitalize on this elite racing event.

BELMONT TODAY

Super Swift Makes Turf Debut in Friday’s Atlantic Beach Stakes

Super Swift, a promising 2-year-old, steps up to stakes competition in Friday’s $135,000 Atlantic Beach Stakes at Aqueduct. Originally meant to debut on grass, Super Swift made a winning start on a sloppy main track against New York-bred maidens. Now, he takes on a competitive eight-horse field in this six-furlong turf sprint, aiming to extend his success.

Trained by George Weaver and owned by R. A. Hill Stable, Super Swift has strong turf credentials. Sired by freshman standout Vekoma and out of a stakes-placed turf mare, he’s shown talent in both workouts and racing. Weaver, with a notable record in first-time turf starters, prepped him with two sharp turf workouts at Saratoga.

In a field packed with talent, Epitaph brings solid turf experience after leading the Grade 3 Futurity field until late in the stretch. Another notable entry, Shoot the Nickel, posted the field’s top Beyer in his debut, while Colonel Bob and Warheart each bring competitive efforts on both turf and dirt

Want expert analysis on Super Swift and the Atlantic Beach Stakes contenders? Order my Breeders’ Cup Advantage package and get exclusive insights to make the most of your Breeders’ Cup weekend bets!

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