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🏇🏇Free Picks for Friday

Churchill Downs Race #9

#8 Shiloh's Mistress (3-1)

• Jockey: L. Saez (29% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael Maker (15% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 72, Late 84

• Last Beyer: 87

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Shiloh's Mistress has been knocking on the door at this level, consistently earning strong figures against quality fields. Her third-place finish last out at Keeneland came against a tough group, and she ran evenly while facing a challenging pace setup. Maker’s record with turf routers at Churchill is strong, and Saez’s aggressive riding style fits this filly’s stalking approach perfectly. Her versatility and ability to quicken in the stretch make her the horse to beat.

#7 Hay Stack (5-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (22% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: D. Whitworth (13% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 22% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 66, Late 99

• Last Beyer: 81

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Closer

Comment: Hay Stack brings a strong closing kick to this field, with a Late Pace figure of 99 that is among the best here. She’s been competitive in allowance company throughout the year, including a sharp effort at Keeneland last out, where she overcame traffic to finish fourth in a deep field. Gaffalione’s experience at Churchill Downs is a major asset, and the projected fast early fractions should allow her to unleash her late rally effectively.

#12 Irish Patsy (8-1) also eligible

• Jockey: F. Geroux (17% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael McCarthy (17% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 57, Late 109

• Last Beyer: 84

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Deep Closer

Comment: Irish Patsy has shown steady improvement and is a dangerous closer who thrives in races with a fast pace. Her strong Late Pace figure of 109 suggests she can make a big move in the stretch if the leaders tire. McCarthy excels with turf routers, and Geroux’s tactical abilities will ensure she gets the best trip possible. If the pace collapses, Irish Patsy is a live longshot who could upset this field at generous odds.

#6 Big Trouble (6-1)

· Jockey: J.A. Torres (14% win rate in 2024)

· Trainer: Greg Foley (15% win rate in 2024)

· Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: Limited starts

· TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 70

· Last Beyer: 79

· Field Beyer Average: 81

· Running Style: Speed

Comment: Big Trouble comes into this race after a solid fifth-place finish in a competitive allowance race at Keeneland. His Early Pace figure of 111 is among the best in the field, suggesting he has the speed to secure a forward position or even dictate terms. Trainer Greg Foley has a strong record with turf routers, and Torres’s aggressive riding style complements this colt’s front-running tendencies. If Big Trouble can replicate his recent form and avoid heavy pressure early, he has a legitimate chance to take this field gate-to-wire. His consistent performances and tactical speed make him a dangerous contender at a fair price..

#3 Bourbon Thief (5-1)

• Jockey: C. Landeros (12% win rate in 2024)

• Trainer: Ian Wilkes (12% win rate in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 13% win rate

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 68, Late 98

• Last Beyer: 75

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Mid-Pack

Comment: Bourbon Thief broke her maiden impressively last time out over this turf course, showcasing her ability to handle the distance and surface. Her balanced pace profile indicates she can stay within striking range and still have enough left to finish strongly. While her Beyer figures are slightly below the top contenders, her improving form makes her an appealing option for the exotics. Look for her to take another step forward against this tougher field.

🏇🏇Aqueduct Free Picks for Friday

8th race

#7 Mighty Atlas (5-2)

• Jockey: Manny Franco (18% in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael Maker (15% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 90, Late 92

• Last Beyer: 88

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Mighty Atlas has been in excellent form this year, winning three of his last five starts, including an impressive gate-to-wire victory in his latest outing on a muddy track. His stalking style makes him versatile, and he is proven at this level. Franco has been aboard for many of his successes, and Maker’s ability to keep horses sharp bodes well. His career-best Beyer of 90 at this distance makes him a strong contender, especially with a favorable pace setup here.

#5 Shadow Dragon (3-1)

• Jockey: Junior Alvarado (15% in 2024)

• Trainer: William Mott (15% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 68, Late 106

• Last Beyer: 85

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Presser

Comment: Shadow Dragon has been knocking on the door at this level, with seven straight in the money finishes. His impressive late pace figure (106) indicates he’ll be closing strongly, especially if the race develops a fast early pace. Alvarado is skilled at timing moves on horses with late runs, and Mott’s runners are known for their consistency. Shadow Dragon needs a clean trip to capitalize on his closing kick, but he is a major threat in this field.

#2 Bourbon Chase (7-2)

• Jockey: Dylan Davis (23% in 2024)

• Trainer: Michael Maker (15% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 16%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 88, Late 91

• Last Beyer: 87

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Bourbon Chase has shown consistent performances, with three second-place finishes from four starts in 2024, including a close runner-up effort at this level last time out. His Beyer figures (87) make him competitive, and he’s versatile enough to adapt to today’s pace scenario. Davis’s ability to secure ground-saving trips could make the difference. Though still searching for a breakthrough win this year, he has the credentials to contend here.

#6 Two’s a Crowd (6-1)

• Jockey: Javier Castellano (13% in 2024)

• Trainer: Derek Ryan (17% in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 25%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 96, Late 99

• Last Beyer: 86

• Field Beyer Average: 81

• Running Style: Speed

Comment: Two’s a Crowd delivered a strong effort last out, finishing third after pressing the pace throughout. His early pace figures (96) indicate he’ll likely be prominent early, and Castellano’s experience can help manage his speed to save energy for the stretch run. His win at Saratoga earlier this year shows he can handle quality fields, and his consistency at this distance makes him a live contender at a fair price.