Free Picks for Saturday

BIG DAY YESTERDAY CASHING ON 16 OF 19 LET'S HIT THEM AGAIN TODAY

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Battaglia's Picks
November 23, 2024

🎯Handicapping with Tom: "The Second-Time Starter Angle"

Second-time starters often show significant improvement, making them prime candidates for value bets. These horses benefit from the experience of their debut, learning from the gate, navigating traffic, and gaining fitness. Pay close attention to runners who flashed speed, closed ground late, or encountered trouble in their first outing—these signs suggest untapped potential. Combine this with trainers who excel with second-time starters and you’ve got a recipe for a smart wager. Second-time out could mean first to the wire!

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🏇🏇Aqueduct and Churchill Saturday

CASHED ON 16 OF 19 RACES YESTERDAY! DON’T GET LEFT IN THE GATE TODAY!

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🏇🏇Free Picks for Saturday

Churchill Downs Race #9

#9 Banned for Life (7-2)

  • Jockey: L. Saez (16%)

  • Trainer: Albert Stall Jr. (15%)

  • Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14%

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 112, Late 67

  • Last Beyer: 93

  • Field Beyer Average: 86

  • Running Style: Stalker
    Comment: Banned for Life has been improving steadily, finishing second last out in allowance company at Keeneland with a strong Beyer of 93. His ability to press or stalk the pace sets him up well for this sprint, and with Luis Saez aboard, he’s in capable hands. Stall Jr. has a strong track record with horses transitioning to the allowance level. Expect him to sit just off the leaders and make a bold move in the stretch.

#11 Agoo (4-1)

  • Jockey: R. Santana Jr. (14%)

  • Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman (13%)

  • Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 10%

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 99, Late 59

  • Last Beyer: 90

  • Field Beyer Average: 86

  • Running Style: Speed/Presser
    Comment: Agoo has flashed consistent form, including a strong second-place finish in an allowance race at Keeneland. He’s shown the ability to handle pace pressure and fight back, as demonstrated in his September victory at Churchill Downs. Agoo’s tactical speed makes him dangerous, and if he gets a clean break, he’ll be tough to catch.

#1 Justifreak (10-1)

  • Jockey: L. Machado (15%)

  • Trainer: Eddie Kenneally (17%)

  • Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 14%

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 116, Late 64

  • Last Beyer: 85

  • Field Beyer Average: 86

  • Running Style: Speed
    Comment: Justifreak is a potential upset candidate, bringing strong early speed to this race. He’s a recent maiden winner over this course and distance, and his early pace figures suggest he can contend for the lead. Kenneally’s 17% strike rate with allowance starters adds to the appeal. He’ll need to avoid a duel up front, but if he gets loose, he could hang on at a price.

#6 Trust Issues (8-1)

  • Jockey: J. Alvarado (15%)

  • Trainer: Michelle Lovell (10%)

  • Jockey/Trainer Combo 2023-24: 12%

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 114, Late 63

  • Last Beyer: 84

  • Field Beyer Average: 86

  • Running Style: Stalker
    Comment: Trust Issues broke his maiden impressively at Churchill Downs and steps up confidently into allowance company. His Beyer figures are competitive, and his stalking style should suit the race’s pace dynamic. He’s a rising star to watch and offers value in exotics.

🏇🏇Aqueduct Free Picks for Saturday

#8 Cumberland Blues (5-2)

  • Jockey: L. Luzzi (9% in 2024)

  • Trainer: W. Potts (13% in 2024)

  • J/T Combo 2023-24: 16%

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 77, Late 89

  • Last Beyer: 80

  • Field Beyer Average: 73

  • Running Style: Mid-pack/Closer

Comment: Sharp current form with three wins and three seconds from eight starts including 80 Beyer last out at this distance while winning by a game nose. Four wins at Aqueduct shows affinity for track. Late running style suits projected hot pace scenario. Potts hitting at 25% with just a week between races.

#3 Styner (7-2)

  • Jockey: D. Davis (19% in 2024)

  • Trainer: C. Englehart (17% in 2024)

  • J/T Combo 2023-24: 13%

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 109, Late 65

  • Last Beyer: 80

  • Running Style: Presser

Comment: Won three of last seven with competitive Beyers (80-79-71). Sharp since claimed by Englehart. Davis/Englehart combo dangerous (14%). Has tactical speed to work trip from good post. Fresh off front-running score at Finger Lakes. Recent works solid including :47 bullet.

#4 Mystic Night (9-2)

  • Jockey: L. Rivera Jr (11% in 2024)

  • Trainer: S. Schauer (First start)

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 93, Late 76

  • Last Beyer: 56

  • Running Style: Stalker

Comment: Takes steep drop from $40,000 for new barn. Won at this track/distance last year with 83 Beyer. Tactical speed and inside post provide options. Back class stands out with Beyers up to 99.

#2 Winter's Ghost (6-1)

  • Jockey: C. Elliott (10% in 2024)

  • Trainer: P. Reynolds (8% in 2024)

  • J/T Combo 2023-24: N/A

  • TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 53

  • Last Beyer: 51

  • Running Style: Speed

Comment: Making first start for Reynolds after solid try against tougher last out. Front-running style could be dangerous if able to clear early. Multiple wins at distance and fresh bullet :47.1 work signals sharpness.