Free Picks for Thursday 10-31

Belmont Park Free Pick for Thursday 10-31

Race #4 

Post: 2:13 PM ET Dirt

7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $90,000 Exacta ($1), Quinella ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 4 & 5 Pick 3 ($1) (4-6), Grand Slam ($1) (4-7), Late Pick 5 (.50) (4-8)

#3 Fashion Victim (3-1)

• Jockey: M. Franco (964: 173-164-121, .18 in 2024)

• Trainer: C. Brown (823: 197-125-99, .24 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 54

• Beyer Speed Figure: 68

Comment: Fashion Victim made an impressive debut, pressing the pace early and holding strong for a second-place finish. This Tapit filly displayed potential and could improve significantly with experience. Trainer Chad Brown’s success with second-time starters further bolsters her chances, as he knows how to develop young talent. Expect her to sit close to the pace and make a strong bid turning for home.

#2 Bundchen (9-2)

• Jockey: W. Rodriguez (308: 50-45-38, .16 in 2024)

• Trainer: W. Ward (298: 79-64-44, .27 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 83, Late 57

• Beyer Speed Figure: 56

Comment: A well-bred filly by Gun Runner, Bundchen has raced in quality fields and finished a game second in her debut over dirt. Although her last two starts were on turf, she now returns to dirt, which suits her pedigree. Ward’s high success rate with dirt sprinters makes her a top contender, and her tactical speed should allow her to find a good position early.

#8 Citational (5-1)

• Jockey: D. Davis (943: 177-148-107, .19 in 2024)

• Trainer: C. McGaughey III (261: 38-50-30, .15 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 64, Late 76

• Beyer Speed Figure: 61

Comment: Citational finished a promising third in her debut, closing steadily after a slow start. This $1.35 million purchase by Into Mischief has the pedigree to excel, and with McGaughey’s guidance, improvement is likely. Her pace figures suggest she’ll appreciate the added distance, and Davis’s patience will be key to her showing a strong finish.

#4 Grand Job (5-2)

• Jockey: J. Alvarado (601: 87-95-76, .14 in 2024)

• Trainer: W. Mott (519: 80-100-75, .15 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: N/A

Comment: Grand Job has been competitive in her Irish starts, including a second at Dundalk. As a daughter of Justify, she should transition well to American dirt racing. Mott’s 15% win rate with horses making their North American debut adds confidence, and her prior experience suggests she has the class to compete strongly here. Look for her to be near the leaders and grind out a strong finish.

Churchill Downs Free Picks

Race #6 
Post: 3:26 PM ET Dirt

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 5 (Races 6-10) / Super Hi-5

#8 Tour Player (5-2)

• Jockey: T. Gaffalione (1278 215 .17 in 2024)

• Jockey/Trainer Win % (2023-24): 23%

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 111, Late 58

• Beyer Speed Figure: 81

Comment: Tour Player delivered a solid performance at 7 furlongs in his last start, with an 81 Beyer, showcasing his ability to press the pace and stay competitive through late fractions. His early pace of 111 indicates tactical speed, a benefit at this mile distance. The move to a mile should suit him well, and he is positioned for a strong effort here with Gaffalione’s guidance.

#4 Good Lord (4-1)

• Jockey: J. A. Torres (656 82 .12 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 114, Late 51

• Beyer Speed Figure: 80

Comment: Good Lord brings a competitive Beyer of 80 from his last race at 7 furlongs. His early pace figure of 114 positions him to control or closely follow the early fractions, which is advantageous given his preference for a forwardly placed running style. His prior races demonstrate a strong ability to hold speed, making him a legitimate contender in this field.

#2 Padiddle (3-1)

• Jockey: E. Morales (666 92 .14 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 79, Late 100

• Beyer Speed Figure: 77

Comment: Padiddle’s consistent Beyer figures in the mid-70s show his reliability at this level, and his late pace of 100 gives him a solid closing advantage. He has shown success at this distance and has a pattern of improving late, which suits the stretch dynamics of this one-mile setup. His past performances suggest he’ll be able to secure a competitive position and capitalize in the final furlong.

#6 El Magnifico (6-1)

• Jockey: E. Asmussen (689 111 .16 in 2024)

• TimeformUS Pace: Early 100, Late 71

• Beyer Speed Figure: 84

Comment: El Magnifico has the highest Beyer figure in the field at 84, achieved on a fast track, indicating his competitiveness in maiden special weight company. His early pace figure of 100 supports his ability to maintain a solid position early in the race, and his prior experience over longer routes should aid him in this stretch out to a mile.