Free Churchill Downs Picks for Wednesday

Did you know? Did you know? Man o' War, one of the greatest racehorses in history, only lost one race in his career—and it was due to a faulty start. In 1919, he was defeated by a horse named Upset, which led to the popular (but incorrect) belief that the term "upset" in sports originated from this race. Man o' War went on to win 20 out of 21 races, cementing his legacy in racing lore!

In today’s email:

• 2024 Eclipse Awards: Thorpedo Anna Takes Center Stage

• Nine Turf Stakes Kick Off Aqueduct’s Fall Meet

• Churchill Free Picks 7th & 8th Race

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HORSE RACING NEWS

2024 Eclipse Awards: Thorpedo Anna Takes Center Stage for Horse of the Year

DEL MAR, Calif. – Following an impressive showing at the Breeders' Cup, Thorpedo Anna, a remarkable 3-year-old filly, has positioned herself as the frontrunner for Horse of the Year. Meanwhile, in the 3-year-old male category, Sierra Leone has gained an edge over Fierceness, promising a close competition as the awards season nears.

Several categories, such as older dirt male and turf male, remain highly competitive, ensuring that this year’s Eclipse Awards will keep fans guessing until the results are unveiled in January.

Thorpedo Anna’s year has been extraordinary, highlighted by her front-running triumph in the $2 million Distaff, capping a record of six wins in seven starts, five of which were in Grade 1 races. Her sole defeat came in a nail-biting loss to Fierceness by a head in the Grade 1 Travers, a race where Sierra Leone finished third. Sierra Leone then overcame Fierceness in the $7 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday.

The last time a 3-year-old filly earned the Horse of the Year title was Rachel Alexandra in 2009, a season in which she achieved an 8-for-8 record, including three wins against male competitors. Similarly, in 2010, the 6-year-old mare Zenyatta came close, winning five Grade 1 races and narrowly losing the Breeders’ Cup Classic to Blame, which still earned her Horse of the Year honors.

The Eclipse Awards are decided by three major groups: the Daily Racing Form, the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters, and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. Voting ballots are distributed in December and collected in early January, with the awards ceremony scheduled for Jan. 23, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. Most top contenders have completed their campaigns, solidifying their cases for various awards.

Category Overviews

Two-Year-Old Filly
Immersive’s convincing 4 1/2-length victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies capped a perfect 4-for-4 season, including three Grade 1 wins. Historically, 36 of the last 40 Juvenile Fillies winners have gone on to be named champions, making her a likely favorite.

Two-Year-Old Male
In a Juvenile field full of top contenders, Citizen Bull’s 1 1/2-length lead in the BC Juvenile stands out. With a 3-for-4 record and two Grade 1 wins, he has a strong case, while Chancer McPatrick and Rated by Merit also had commendable seasons.

Three-Year-Old Male
Sierra Leone and Fierceness are tied in their head-to-head season at 2-2. Sierra Leone’s Breeders' Cup Classic win puts him slightly ahead. Sierra Leone’s consistency, with no finish worse than third, contrasts with Fierceness, who finished 15th in the Kentucky Derby but set records in the Florida Derby.

Three-Year-Old Filly
Thorpedo Anna’s performance speaks for itself, especially after her standout win in the Distaff.

Older Dirt Male
National Treasure is one of the few older dirt males with two Grade 1 victories. Others, like Subsanador, Arthur’s Ride, and Highland Falls, each have at least one major Grade 1 win, keeping the competition tight.

Older Dirt Female
Idiomatic, who was sidelined from the Breeders’ Cup due to injury, could still repeat as champion with three major wins, including the Grade 1 La Troienne. Raging Sea, another top performer, finished second to Thorpedo Anna in the Distaff.

Turf Male
Rebel’s Romance and More Than Looks, winners at the Breeders' Cup, lack extensive North American campaigns, leaving room for others like Johannes, who has four graded stakes wins, and Far Bridge, a two-time Grade 1 winner.

Turf Female
Moira, winner of the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, led a limited campaign but impressed with wins like the Beverly D. Didia and Gina Romantica each also had notable victories, making this category competitive.

Male Sprinter
Straight No Chaser’s Breeders' Cup Sprint victory, in just his third start, positions him as a strong candidate. Cogburn and The Chosen Vron also had noteworthy seasons, each with multiple graded stakes wins.

Female Sprinter
Soul of an Angel’s upset victory in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint adds weight to her campaign, while Society and Vahva were strong performers with Grade 1 wins.

Jockey
Flavien Prat’s performance in the Breeders’ Cup, paired with 73 stakes wins, puts him in prime position for the Eclipse. With record-breaking earnings and graded stakes victories, he leads over Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer
Chad Brown continues his dominance with 63 stakes victories, leading all trainers with over $29 million in purse money. Kenny McPeek made history by winning both the Kentucky Derby and Oaks, making him a top contender.

Owner
Godolphin Racing has a four-year winning streak in this category and could extend it after major wins by horses like Immersive and Rebel’s Romance. However, Thorpedo Anna’s ownership group, Magdalena Racing and partners, will also be considered.

AQUEDUCT FALL MEET

Nine Turf Stakes Kick Off Aqueduct’s Fall Meet in Final Weeks of Turf Racing

The New York Racing Association (NYRA) is hoping that the beautiful autumn weather around New York City holds up over the next couple of weeks, as it marks the remaining time for turf racing this season.

Aqueduct’s fall meet, distinct from the Belmont at the Big A season, starts this Thursday with an eight-race lineup that includes three turf contests. The schedule features nine turf stakes from Thursday through Nov. 17, after which turf races will conclude for the year.

In past years, before Belmont Park’s renovation temporarily moved downstate racing to Aqueduct, turf events at Aqueduct continued as late as December if the weather permitted. However, this is now the second year that NYRA is ending the turf season earlier, aiming to preserve the course's quality for the start of racing next April.

Aqueduct has held 126 turf races across its two turf courses over the last eight weeks, with only seven races moved to dirt, the most recent occurring on Sept. 29.

The meet’s nine turf stakes include Friday's Grade 3 $175,000 Pebbles and the $150,000 Autumn Days; Saturday’s Grade 2 $300,000 Red Smith, Grade 3 $200,000 Hill Prince, and the $150,000 Aqueduct Turf Sprint; and Sunday’s Grade 3 $300,000 Long Island and $135,000 Forever Together.

In total, Aqueduct’s fall meet will feature 26 stakes races worth $5.33 million across 26 days of racing, which runs through Dec. 29. The meet’s highlight will be Dec. 7, showcasing four major stakes: the Grade 2 $500,000 Cigar Mile, the Grade 2 $250,000 Remsen, the Grade 2 $250,000 Demoiselle, and the Grade 3 $200,000 Go for Wand.

The race schedule includes races Thursday through Sunday, with nine-race cards beginning at 12:10 p.m. and 10-race cards starting at 11:40 a.m. No races will take place on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 28), and there will be a break from Dec. 16 to Dec. 26.

This Thursday’s card includes two highlighted allowance races, one on dirt and one on turf, under forecasts of sunny skies and temperatures near 70 degrees.

The opening race, a $95,000 second-level allowance/optional claiming race at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, includes Parx runner Magic Michael, a 7-year-old gelding and 14-time winner for trainer Jamie Ness. Magic Michael has recently tested different distances, finishing second in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at 1 1/2 miles, and just a half-length behind in his latest one-mile race. This Thursday, he’ll be one of two horses offered for the $62,500 claiming price.

Trainer Chad Brown brings an uncoupled pair of entries: Army Times, returning from a 10-month break after finishing sixth at Parx, and Moore’s Law, who scored an upset win at 14-1 after his last-place finish in May.

In the seventh race, a first-level allowance at 1 1/16 miles on the outer turf, Horacio De Paz enters Awesome Czech and Can’t Fool Me. Awesome Czech, a Mendelssohn filly, is 3-for-4 at this distance and comes off a third-place finish in her last start. Jockey Manny Franco, who rode Awesome Czech to all three of her wins, will be back on board for the first time in three races.

De Paz’s other entry, Can’t Fool Me, steps into open company after competing in statebred races, including a third-place finish in the John Hettinger Stakes. She missed a recent shot in the Ticonderoga Stakes, as De Paz hoped this allowance would offer a more favorable field.

Brown also enters two turf contenders: Rhiannon, who returns after a year off following a fifth-place finish in last year’s Grade 3 Pebbles, and Revalita, who placed third in this condition at Saratoga in August.

Vino Rouge, initially a Saratoga winner before disqualification, will look to improve after a fifth-place finish in her last outing.

Notable Performances at Belmont at the Big A

Dylan Davis earned his first fall meet riding title at the Belmont at the Big A season, finishing with 44 wins, followed by Kendrick Carmouche (34), Manny Franco (27), and Flavien Prat (24). Davis previously won titles at NYRA winter meets in 2022 and 2024.

Chad Brown claimed his 13th Belmont fall title with 31 victories, a substantial lead over Linda Rice, who finished with 18 wins. Christophe Clement and Brad Cox each secured 13 wins to follow closely.

CHURCHILL DOWNS FREE PICKS FOR TODAY

7th race

#5 Kentucky Smokeshow (7-2) Impressive maiden winner over track earning solid 72 Beyer. Faced better in allowance last out. Should get perfect stalking trip behind expected speeds. Training forwardly with consecutive bullet works. Hartman’s record with 2-year-olds and sprinters is impressive, and Bejarano’s experience should help in timing her late move.

#4 Mascara (9-2) Mascara broke her maiden impressively at Saratoga in her racing debut, showing a solid early turn of foot. With Corrales and Ward’s strong track record together, she’s a promising choice to handle the quick pace here. Her recent workouts suggest she’s ready to fire, and her pedigree backs up her early talent. The potential for another strong front-running performance makes her an appealing option.

#8 Gerlin's Empire (4-1) Gerlin's Empire debuted well at Churchill, winning her maiden race with a strong drive in the stretch. Her stalking style sets up nicely in a field with early pace, and if the leaders falter, she has the capability to capitalize late. A strong player in exotics.

#1 Autumn Rhythm (4-1) Autumn Rhythm showed good early pace in her maiden win, breaking away decisively. Kenneally’s stats with 2-year-olds are favorable, and Saez is an asset in guiding her speed. The inside post should allow her to gain early position, and if she controls the pace, she may prove tough to catch. A good inclusion for exactas and trifectas.

8th race

#1 Banishing (5-1) Banishing drops back into allowance company after a solid win at a higher claiming level. He’s shown he can sit close to the pace and has a late kick, which should suit him well here. He offers value at the morning line odds, especially given his tactical advantage and consistency.

#9 Liberal Arts (5-2) Liberal Arts has proven himself in graded stakes company, suggesting he’s a class standout in this field. Cox’s stable excels with freshening horses, and his late pace figures are among the best in this group. Saez’s riding style complements Liberal Arts' closing ability, making him a top contender. If he gets a pace setup, he’s very dangerous late.

#2 Lambeth (6-1) Lambeth is a closer with a strong late kick, which could come into play if the pace heats up. Sharp’s strategy with route runners has proven effective, and Ortiz’s experience adds to Lambeth’s value here. His closing style could make him a potent threat in the stretch.

#6 TWO EAGLES RIVER (9-2) Strong second last out at Keeneland with competitive 89 Beyer. Has hit board in 9 of last 13 starts showing consistency. Should get good stalking trip from mid-pack.