Churchill Downs Free Picks for Wednesday 10-30

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CHURCHILL Free Picks for Today

Churchill Downs Race 1 Analysis (10/30/2024)

Race Preview:

The opening race at Churchill Downs is a Starter Allowance race with a purse of $56,000. This 1-mile race on dirt is open to three-year-olds and older horses that have started for a claiming price of $30,000 or less and have never won three races. With a mix of form cycles, claiming moves, and competitive jockey-trainer combinations, this race offers an intriguing challenge for handicappers.

Projected Pace Analysis:

This field presents a mix of early speed and late closers, with Bernin Hot likely to take the early lead, setting a solid pace. Seas of Normandy and Harleezy should sit mid-pack, biding their time, while Drip d'Oro can be expected to try a closing move. The race could see a contested pace if Cawkab challenges Bernin Hot up front, potentially setting up well for a mid-pack or closing runner.

Turning for Home:

As the field turns for home, Bernin Hot may still be in front but could face pressure from Seas of Normandy and Harleezy, who will look to pounce. Drip d'Oro may also make a late run if the early pace weakens, potentially sweeping into contention from the back.

Top Selections and How the Race Should Unfold:

1. #5 Bernin Hot (8-5)

   • Jockey: L. Saez (9 2 3 1 .22 in 2024)

   • Trainer: Christopher Davis (166 31 .19 in 2024)

   • TimeformUS Pace: Early 114 Late 59

   • Comment: This speedy gelding has found success in similar company, winning his last two starts with clear early pace. With Saez aboard, he should set a quick tempo upfront. His ability to maintain his speed gives him an edge in this field, though he must avoid a speed duel with potential challengers like Cawkab. Expect him to try to lead gate to wire, capitalizing on his pace advantage.

2. #6 Seas of Normandy (3-1)

   • Jockey: R. Gutierrez (508 62 .12 in 2024)

   • Trainer: Cipriano Contreras (224 49 .22 in 2024)

   • TimeformUS Pace: Early 80 Late 81

   • Comment: A steady, versatile runner, Seas of Normandy often sits just off the leaders before making his bid. He has improved form in his last few races and thrives at this distance. Gutierrez’s experience and Contreras’ high win rate make this a reliable contender. If the pace up front heats up, he should be well-positioned to pick off tiring horses in the stretch.

3. #2 Harleezy (5-1)

   • Jockey: J. Elliott (248 23 .09 in 2024)

   • Trainer: Gary G. Hartlage (23 2 .09 in 2024)

   • TimeformUS Pace: Early 55 Late 114

   • Comment: This longshot has a powerful closing kick, evidenced by his high Late Pace figure of 114. While he may struggle with consistency, his ability to close into a fast pace makes him a threat, especially if Bernin Hot and Cawkab battle early. Look for him to make a late run from mid-pack, with a chance to surprise if the leaders falter.

4. #3 Cawkab (4-1)

   • Jockey: K. Asmussen (3 0 0 0 .00 in 2024)

   • Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (1945 336 .17 in 2024)

   • TimeformUS Pace: Early 73 Late 90

   • Comment: Dropping from allowance company, Cawkab has the class edge over several rivals. His tactical speed allows him to sit just off the leaders if he doesn't grab the early lead. With a significant trainer in Asmussen, expect a competitive showing. While he lacks a standout figure, his adaptability and drop in class make him a viable contender for a strong finish.

Expected Race Outcome:

Bernin Hot should dictate the early pace, with Seas of Normandy tracking closely behind. If the speed softens, look for Harleezy to close late with his impressive finishing kick, possibly upsetting the favorite. Cawkab will likely keep up with the leaders, but his closing effort might fall short against stronger finishers. This race could unfold with Bernin Hot holding on narrowly, with Seas of Normandy and Harleezy mounting late threats.

Get the Edge with Today’s Expert Selections
With a field this competitive, insider knowledge can make all the difference. Don’t miss your chance to leverage expert handicapping—order your selections for today’s races and increase your chances of winning.