The first thing most bettors do when they open the past performances is circle the highest speed figure.
That’s also why most bettors never beat the takeout.
Speed figures matter. They absolutely matter. But used incorrectly, they become one of the fastest ways to drain a bankroll.
After handicapping more than 200,000 races over four decades, one truth stands out:
Speed confirms structure. It does not replace it.
Let’s break down what that really means
What a Beyer Speed Figure Actually Measures
A Beyer Speed Figure is a final-time rating adjusted for track variant. It compares how fast a horse ran relative to other races on that surface that day.
It tells you:
How fast the horse finished
Relative performance versus the track variant
A baseline comparison number
It does not tell you:
Whether the horse had an uncontested lead
Whether the pace was destructive
Whether the track was biased
Whether class inflated the number
A 92 earned on a loose lead against weak company is not equal to a 92 earned under pressure in a contested allowance.
Raw numbers hide context.
What TimeformUS Adds That Beyer Doesn’t
TimeformUS breaks a race into components:
Early pace
Late pace
Internal fractions
Track-adjusted performance
Beyer tells you how fast they finished.
Timeform helps you understand how they got there.
That distinction is critical when constructing exactas. Second-place horses are often determined more by pace shape than final time.
A balanced early/late profile that fits today’s projected structure is far more powerful than a single high final number.
When Speed Figures Lie
There are four common traps that catch most bettors.
1️⃣ Lone Speed Inflation
A horse wires a field under soft fractions and earns a career-top figure.
Next time, pressure appears — and the figure collapses.
2️⃣ Pace Collapse Mirage
A deep closer earns a monster late number into extreme early splits.
The public bets the big number next out. The pace setup is gone.
3️⃣ Class Illusion
A strong figure earned against inferior company doesn’t translate upward.
Class is evaluated first. Always.
4️⃣ Bias Boost
A rail bias or speed-favoring surface artificially inflates performances.
Without adjusting for bias, bettors chase ghosts.
Most players never adjust.
That’s the edge.
How Professionals Actually Use Speed Figures
The public starts with the highest number on the page.
Professionals don’t.
The hierarchy looks like this:
Class stack
Pace role and positional logic
Track-specific bias
Form reliability
Trainer and jockey evaluation
Speed figure confirmation
Speed figures confirm the stack.
They never override it.
When a number aligns with structure, it becomes powerful.
When it stands alone, it becomes dangerous.
🎯 Ready to Use Speed Figures the Right Way?
Reading about structure is one thing.
Applying it consistently — race after race, across multiple tracks — is another.
Inside the 1-Year Membership, every race is evaluated using:
Class hierarchy first
Pace and positional logic
Track-specific bias modeling
Trainer intent confirmation
Speed figure validation
No guessing. No chasing numbers. No narrative overrides.
🏇 Join the 1-Year Membership Today
Full Access. Full Cards. Full Season Coverage.
$99.99 Per Year ($8.33/Month)
Proof That Structure Beats Raw Numbers
In the past few days alone, the stack logic produced two BOOM Exacta hits in just three days of racing:
💥 02/22/2026 – Oaklawn Park – Race 7
Exacta 2–6 paid $105.30
💥 02/20/2026 – Gulfstream Park – Race 10
Exacta 2–9 paid $119.80
That’s $225.10 in BOOM payouts across two tracks, identified not by chasing the highest Beyer on the page, but by:
Evaluating class first
Projecting pace structure
Applying track bias
Confirming with balanced speed figures
The public leans on surface-level numbers.
We lean on stack logic.
That difference shows up in the payouts.
💥 Two BOOM Exactas in Three Days
Those results weren’t built on chasing the highest figure.
They were built on disciplined structure.
If you want access to that same class-first, pace-driven evaluation across every track we cover, the 1-Year Membership is your entry point.
For less than the cost of a few single-day purchases, you get:
✔ Full card coverage
✔ Derby prep season analysis
✔ Exacta construction built on logic
✔ Consistent structure — not guesswork
Full Access. Full Cards. Full Season Coverage.
$99.99 Per Year ($8.33/Month)
A Simple Framework You Can Use Today
If you want to immediately improve your use of speed figures, follow this:
Step 1: Identify the top three recent figures in the field.
Step 2: Remove any earned on uncontested leads or pace collapses.
Step 3: Evaluate today’s projected pace structure.
Step 4: Upgrade the horse whose figure fits today’s pace and class stack.
You’ll eliminate the majority of public mistakes instantly.
The Edge Isn’t a Number — It’s a System
Speed figures are essential.
But they are not selections.
They are confirmation tools inside a disciplined hierarchy.
One number never wins a race.
Structure wins races.
And structure is repeatable.
If you’re relying on raw speed figures alone, you’re playing the same game as everyone else.
If you’re ready to move beyond surface-level handicapping and apply a disciplined, repeatable framework across every race day:
$99.99 for full-year access
$8.33 per month
Every track. Every race day.
The public will chase the highest figure.
Professionals will apply structure.
Choose your side.